Swing Trading Fixed Profit Backtester Tool

Use this interactive tool to backtest BTFDBot's oversold strategies for different years and stock types. There is also a monthly backtester for longer term trend following strategies.

The year selector selects the year the trades were entered. Losses will not be realised until two calendar years after the buy date. This normally results in most of the significant losses being booked in years where the market boomed (e.g. 2021) rather than major bear market years (e.g. 2022).



Win rate: 87.38%
Average profit per trade: 6.12%.
Number of trades: 103
Average CAGR: 137206791.06%
Maximum Drawdown: -55.29%
Average Maximum Drawdown: -7.77%

Expectancy calculations:
(Win% x Avg Win) + (Breakeven% x Avg Breakeven) – (Loss% x Avg Loss): (87.38% x 8.51%) + (6.80% x 1.63%) – (5.83% x 24.48%) = 6.12%

All Trades

Win/Loss chart key: square: win square: breakeven square: loss

Table key: select_check_box: profitable with CAGR above 15% select_check_box : profitable with CAGR between 5 and 15%
select_check_box : profitable but CAGR was below 5% disabled_by_default : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe) electric_bolt : high CAGR trade schedule : open trade

No. Stock Signal and Score Signal Date Buy Price Max. DD Performance Profit / Loss Running Avg
1 Johnson & Johnson open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   01 Feb 2023 $163.96 -13.68% select_check_box 0.29% 0.29 %
2 Akamai Technologies open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   01 Mar 2023 $72.70 -2.03% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.70% 4 %
3 Morningstar open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   LOW   02 Mar 2023 $206.49 -15.09% select_check_box 8.64% 5.54 %
4 NV5 Global open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.967 02 Mar 2023 $26.46 -14.08% select_check_box 7.62% 6.06 %
5 Commerce Bancshares open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   16 Mar 2023 $59.66 -30.74% select_check_box 1.55% 5.16 %
6 Hormel Foods open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   16 Mar 2023 $39.30 -27.94% disabled_by_default -24.21% 0.27 %
7 Hasbro open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   16 Mar 2023 $47.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 9.03% 1.52 %
8 Principal Financial Group open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   20 Mar 2023 $71.73 -1.32% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.60% 2.28 %
9 First Financial Bankshares open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   20 Mar 2023 $31.43 -25.99% select_check_box 1.40% 2.18 %
10 Gorman-Rupp Company open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   20 Mar 2023 $23.98 -1.94% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.84% 2.85 %
11 Charles Schwab open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   20 Mar 2023 $57.34 -18.98% select_check_box electric_bolt 12.54% 3.73 %
12 Calavo Growers open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   20 Mar 2023 $23.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 13.18% 4.51 %
13 American International Group open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   21 Mar 2023 $50.80 -8.07% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.50% 4.74 %
14 Globe Life open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   21 Mar 2023 $110.00 -6.10% select_check_box 8.16% 4.99 %
15 Metlife open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   21 Mar 2023 $58.54 -16.97% select_check_box 7.60% 5.16 %
16 Equitable Holdings open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   21 Mar 2023 $25.38 -12.10% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.23% 5.35 %
17 Newell Brands open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.959 22 Mar 2023 $11.58 -0.30% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.73% 5.49 %
18 Cullen Frost Bankers open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.973 27 Mar 2023 $103.07 -10.42% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.51% 5.61 %
19 Capitol Federal Financial open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   06 Apr 2023 $6.68 -35.53% select_check_box 0.00% 5.31 %
20 Cal-Maine Foods open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   04 May 2023 $47.13 -8.29% select_check_box 8.43% 5.47 %
21 Keurig Dr Pepper open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   04 May 2023 $31.95 -12.93% select_check_box 5.56% 5.47 %
22 Crown Castle open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   LOW   05 May 2023 $111.68 -25.16% select_check_box 2.37% 5.33 %
23 Tompkins Financial open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   05 May 2023 $54.58 -7.08% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.99% 5.53 %
24 Tootsie Roll Industries open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   05 May 2023 $38.03 -26.61% disabled_by_default -11.14% 4.84 %
25 Prospect Capital open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   HIGH   08 May 2023 $5.80 -3.88% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.67% 4.95 %
26 WhiteHorse Finance open_in_new Rate of Change   HIGH   09 May 2023 $10.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.26% 5.08 %
27 Commerce Bancshares open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 May 2023 $47.30 -12.65% select_check_box 8.20% 5.19 %
28 Capitol Federal Financial open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   15 May 2023 $5.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.78% 5.29 %
29 Genpact open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   16 May 2023 $36.21 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.91% 5.38 %
30 Metlife open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   17 May 2023 $49.40 -1.11% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.92% 5.46 %
31 Newell Brands open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.988 19 May 2023 $8.63 -10.57% select_check_box electric_bolt 9.29% 5.59 %
32 Ulta Beauty open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.971 05 Jun 2023 $421.18 -1.12% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.51% 5.65 %
33 Flowers Foods open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.984 05 Jun 2023 $24.50 -32.94% disabled_by_default -32.96% 4.48 %
34 Target Corp open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.97 06 Jun 2023 $128.02 -19.49% select_check_box 8.89% 4.61 %
35 Autozone open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   LOW   08 Jun 2023 $2332.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.89% 4.7 %
36 Dollar Tree open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   08 Jun 2023 $132.88 -0.87% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 8.23% 4.8 %
37 Kenvue open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   09 Jun 2023 $25.08 -28.81% disabled_by_default -14.48% 4.28 %
38 Campbell Soup Company open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   12 Jun 2023 $45.22 -27.88% select_check_box 0.27% 4.17 %
39 Humana open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   28 Jun 2023 $442.15 -4.04% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.04% 4.3 %
40 Masimo open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   25 Jul 2023 $114.09 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.77% 4.38 %
41 RTX Corp open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   28 Jul 2023 $86.42 -19.65% select_check_box 7.79% 4.47 %
42 Amdocs Ltd open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   09 Aug 2023 $86.84 -9.05% select_check_box 7.72% 4.54 %
43 Resmed open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   14 Aug 2023 $179.37 -23.77% select_check_box 7.64% 4.62 %
44 NNN REIT open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   17 Aug 2023 $38.05 -10.35% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.59% 4.68 %
45 Doximity open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   21 Aug 2023 $22.70 -12.36% select_check_box electric_bolt 10.27% 4.81 %
46 Electronic Arts open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   21 Aug 2023 $118.16 select_check_box electric_bolt 7.56% 4.87 %
47 Dollar Tree open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   11 Sep 2023 $116.24 -10.46% select_check_box electric_bolt 9.11% 4.96 %
48 ABM Industries open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   13 Sep 2023 $39.72 -1.67% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.29% 5.05 %
49 RTX Corp open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   15 Sep 2023 $75.45 -7.97% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.78% 5.12 %
50 Chewy open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.992 22 Sep 2023 $18.26 -8.38% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.68% 5.19 %
51 J.M. Smucker open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.97 25 Sep 2023 $125.09 -24.24% disabled_by_default -12.54% 4.85 %
52 Kenvue open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   26 Sep 2023 $20.62 -13.41% select_check_box 8.05% 4.91 %
53 HP open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   29 Sep 2023 $25.72 -0.23% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.97% 4.97 %
54 Clorox Company open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.957 02 Oct 2023 $129.88 -10.54% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.37% 5.03 %
55 Brown-Forman open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   03 Oct 2023 $57.46 -55.29% disabled_by_default -51.53% 4 %
56 Atmos Energy open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   05 Oct 2023 $106.15 -0.38% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.50% 4.06 %
57 3M Company open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   05 Oct 2023 $85.86 -2.41% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.35% 4.16 %
58 Realty Income open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.968 05 Oct 2023 $49.29 -5.90% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.58% 4.22 %
59 Workday open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   06 Oct 2023 $208.08 -0.99% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.82% 4.28 %
60 York Water Company open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.982 06 Oct 2023 $37.26 -4.82% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.99% 4.34 %
61 Black Hills open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   HIGH   smart_toy0.978 06 Oct 2023 $47.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.49% 4.41 %
62 Consolidated Edison open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   HIGH   smart_toy0.968 06 Oct 2023 $84.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.56% 4.47 %
63 Essential Utilities open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.985 06 Oct 2023 $32.80 -1.57% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.67% 4.52 %
64 Alliant Energy open_in_new Rate of Change   HIGH   smart_toy0.962 06 Oct 2023 $47.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.71% 4.61 %
65 American Water Works open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Oct 2023 $119.06 -3.91% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.59% 4.65 %
66 Eversource Energy open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Oct 2023 $56.52 -6.84% select_check_box electric_bolt 9.03% 4.72 %
67 NNN REIT open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Oct 2023 $34.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.17% 4.77 %
68 Prologis open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Oct 2023 $107.20 -9.59% select_check_box electric_bolt 9.41% 4.84 %
69 Edison International open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Oct 2023 $62.20 -0.14% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.09% 4.88 %
70 PepsiCo open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $162.47 -3.05% select_check_box 7.64% 4.92 %
71 Berkshire Hathaway open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $347.78 -3.99% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.70% 4.96 %
72 Dominion Energy open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $41.26 -6.98% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.50% 5 %
73 Coca-Cola Company open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $53.23 -2.35% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.88% 5.04 %
74 McDonalds open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $248.71 -1.61% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.60% 5.07 %
75 NextEra Energy open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.958 10 Oct 2023 $49.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.51% 5.1 %
76 Stepan Company open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $68.27 -5.77% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 7.58% 5.14 %
77 Sysco Corp open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   10 Oct 2023 $63.98 -1.62% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.28% 5.19 %
78 Church & Dwight open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   11 Oct 2023 $87.61 -2.08% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.78% 5.22 %
79 Chesapeake Utilities open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   11 Oct 2023 $92.82 -7.49% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.74% 5.26 %
80 Monster Beverage open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   11 Oct 2023 $50.15 -4.85% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 12.46% 5.35 %
81 McCormick & Co. open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.979 16 Oct 2023 $61.40 -2.30% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.59% 5.37 %
82 Mondelez International open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   17 Oct 2023 $62.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 8.31% 5.41 %
83 Keurig Dr Pepper open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   17 Oct 2023 $28.41 -0.41% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 8.83% 5.45 %
84 Hormel Foods open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   18 Oct 2023 $32.17 -10.54% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.92% 5.49 %
85 John Wiley & Sons open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.952 19 Oct 2023 $30.42 -2.66% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.64% 5.52 %
86 Genuine Parts Company open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   26 Oct 2023 $127.88 -0.97% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.90% 5.55 %
87 Thermo Fisher Scientific open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   31 Oct 2023 $440.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 9.01% 5.58 %
88 AGNC Investment Corp open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   31 Oct 2023 $7.15 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 10.83% 5.64 %
89 T. Rowe Price Group open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   01 Nov 2023 $90.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.82% 5.67 %
90 Sanofi open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   01 Nov 2023 €86.58 -2.94% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.85% 5.69 %
91 Hasbro open_in_new Rate of Change   HIGH   01 Nov 2023 $45.52 -5.67% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.90% 5.72 %
92 Moderna Inc open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   HIGH   01 Nov 2023 $75.71 -10.46% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 15.14% 5.82 %
93 ADP open_in_new Rate of Change   HIGH   02 Nov 2023 $212.57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.63% 5.84 %
94 Chevron open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   02 Nov 2023 $143.58 -2.83% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.96% 5.86 %
95 Scout24 S.E. open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   02 Nov 2023 €59.00 -0.69% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.75% 5.88 %
96 LKQ Corp open_in_new Rate of Change   HIGH   02 Nov 2023 $43.19 select_check_box electric_bolt 7.89% 5.9 %
97 Enphase Energy open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.997 03 Nov 2023 $81.21 -5.80% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 14.34% 5.99 %
98 Astec Industries open_in_new Rate of Change   MEDIUM   06 Nov 2023 $31.32 -2.89% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.27% 6.01 %
99 Henry Schein open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   HIGH   07 Nov 2023 $62.73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt 9.17% 6.04 %
100 KBR open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   08 Nov 2023 $51.46 -0.30% select_check_box electric_bolt 8.03% 6.06 %
101 Unum Group open_in_new bubble_chart Rate of Change   MEDIUM   09 Nov 2023 $43.38 -2.42% select_check_box electric_bolt 7.66% 6.08 %
102 Bayer AG open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   01 Dec 2023 €31.40 -1.34% select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 8.96% 6.11 %
103 Arthur J. Gallagher open_in_new Rate of Change   LOW   26 Dec 2023 $222.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt 7.54% 6.12 %

 

Swing Trading Backtest Simulation Results

The Capital Allocation and Equity Curve charts above show the hypothetical results from swing trading the specific stocks in the specific year.

The backtester uses $1000 starting capital and invests $100 into each stock [it assumes all stocks are listed in $]. If no funds are available then it does not buy stocks until there is capital available. Note that this backtester does not buy all of the trades listed in the table above. It may not have sufficient funds to buy each signal.

The results are highly dependent on two factors: the time each swing trade takes to complete and the number of buy signals. If there are no buy signals then the backtester will accumulate cash.

This Gantt chart shows an overview of when trades were entered and exited ( square : profit square : breakeven square : loss ).

 

Strategy summary: buy stocks at Rate of Change buy signal and sell if it reaches the specified percentage profit target. If it doesn't reach the profit target after 365 days then adjust the profit target to the buy price. Wait for another 365 days for the stock to reach this new breakeven target. If it doesn't reach the breakeven target then sell at whatever price the stock is at. This strategy does not use stop losses. Full details of the trading strategy are here.

Some trades will have significantly exceeded their designated profit target due to gaps up at the market open. This can be a significantly higher price due to takeover bids or periods of extreme market volatility (e.g. during March 2020 or April 2025).

The current and previous year(s) may have trades in progress. These are excluded from expectancy calculations.

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the percentage return a trade makes on an annualised basis.