Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 9.10%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 4.434.   Maximum drawdown: -48.40% on 19 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 224.49%. Time in market: 477 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2490.13 on 20 April 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 15 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 9.10%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 9.10%.
Wins: 15 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
03 August 2026 Mega Dump Lite 71 68 94 86 51 78 schedule schedule schedule
13 July 2026 Mega Dump 90 75 95 81 51 91 schedule schedule schedule
13 July 2026 Simple Mean Reversion (RoC) 54 75 95 81 51 68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 July 2026 Rate of Change 76 75 95 81 51 83 schedule schedule schedule
08 July 2026 Super Oversold (26) 86 75 95 81 51 89 schedule schedule schedule
08 July 2026 Gap Down 61 75 95 81 51 73 schedule schedule schedule
07 July 2026 Super Oversold (52) 90 72 95 81 51 90 schedule schedule schedule
07 July 2026 Williams %R (Weekly) 63 72 95 81 51 74 schedule schedule schedule
30 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 63 54 95 81 51 68 schedule schedule schedule
30 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 70 54 95 81 51 72 schedule schedule schedule

Gap Up Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Gap Up entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 May 2026 Gap Up $ 81.58 71 83 95 81 50 82 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 August 2025 Gap Up $ 128.80 65 66 95 65 53 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
13 May 2025 Gap Up $ 114.05 64 55 96 64 58 67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 March 2025 Gap Up $ 105.72 65 45 96 61 60 63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 January 2025 Gap Up $ 105.86 57 77 96 61 60 69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 December 2024 Gap Up $ 113.21 68 80 96 60 61 77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
18 April 2023 Gap Up $ 61.04 65 68 100 73 83 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 March 2023 Gap Up $ 58.64 67 80 100 73 71 77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 November 2022 Gap Up $ 56.60 74 82 100 61 43 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 May 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 42.81 90 94 100 61 43 95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 April 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 48.14 59 67 100 57 41 68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 June 2021  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 87.17 14 71 100 84 88 32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 March 2021  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 87.34 50 70 100 80 87 63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 June 2020  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 91.75 72 75 100 82 88 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 April 2020  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 50.80 96 93 100 83 87 99 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 March 2020  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 41.88 97 87 100 83 90 98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 March 2020  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 39.60 97 95 100 83 85 100 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 December 2019  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 69.67 70 66 100 81 81 75 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 January 2019  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 75.66 67 85 100 68 77 78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 October 2016 Gap Up $ 27.24 54 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 September 2016 Gap Up $ 27.59 66 52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 12 Aug 2026.