ASML Holding NV (ASML) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ASML's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.18%.   Win rate: 89.47%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.534.   Maximum drawdown: -52.07% on 13 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 205.68%. Time in market: 3574 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $4261.10 on 27 October 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for ASML

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 38 signal(s) occurring before 17 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (89.47% * 9.30%) + (7.89% * 2.25%) - (2.63% * 12.10%) = 8.18%.
Wins: 34 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

ASML Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Score Performance
5% 6% 7.5%
24 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (54)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
07 July 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (64)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up   smart_toyHIGH (91)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (68)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
18 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
15 June 2026  bubble_chart Double Seven   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
09 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up   smart_toyLOW (75)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
08 June 2026  bubble_chart Oversold Rebound   smart_toyLOW (64)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (47)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
02 June 2026  bubble_chart Oversold Rebound   smart_toyLOW (50)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

Gap Up Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Gap Up entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
26 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (91)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1788.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
18 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1926.93 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (75)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1777.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
07 May 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (47)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1532.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 April 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1430.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 January 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (72)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1357.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 January 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (58)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1232.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 January 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (56)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1219.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 October 2025   smart_toyLOW (73)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 1028.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 September 2025   smart_toyLOW (58)    computerLOW   Gap Up $ 929.11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (88)    computerHIGH   Gap Up $ 670.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 January 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (29)     Gap Up $ 738.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 January 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (17)     Gap Up $ 762.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
07 January 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (19)     Gap Up $ 766.29 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (89)     Gap Up $ 668.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 September 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (68)     Gap Up $ 847.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 September 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)     Gap Up $ 802.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     Gap Up $ 868.81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
01 August 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Gap Up $ 903.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 June 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (50)     Gap Up $ 1050.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 May 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (36)     Gap Up $ 947.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
23 February 2024   smart_toyLOW (39)     Gap Up $ 942.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
25 January 2024   smart_toyLOW (62)     Gap Up $ 867.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 November 2023   smart_toyLOW (61)     Gap Up $ 641.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 July 2023   smart_toyLOW (54)     Gap Up $ 712.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 May 2023   smart_toyLOW (63)     Gap Up $ 721.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
14 December 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     Gap Up $ 619.18 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 November 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     Gap Up $ 580.11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 November 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (88)     Gap Up $ 568.61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (93)     Gap Up $ 479.11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 October 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (96)     Gap Up $ 434.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 October 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (97)     Gap Up $ 403.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 October 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (96)     Gap Up $ 463.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (73)     Gap Up $ 537.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 April 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Up $ 632.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 March 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (53)     Gap Up $ 648.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (54)     Gap Up $ 599.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
14 January 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (56)     Gap Up $ 740.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 December 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Up $ 803.56 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 March 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Up $ 577.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (38)     Gap Up $ 535.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 March 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (40)     Gap Up $ 531.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (53)     Gap Up $ 342.65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 April 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     Gap Up $ 277.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 April 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     Gap Up $ 274.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
31 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (91)     Gap Up $ 263.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (94)     Gap Up $ 260.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (94)     Gap Up $ 256.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (96)     Gap Up $ 228.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (94)     Gap Up $ 219.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (95)     Gap Up $ 224.05 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 March 2020   smart_toyLOW (73)     Gap Up $ 267.19 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 July 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     Gap Up $ 221.48 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 October 2018   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     Gap Up $ 161.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 July 2018   smart_toyLOW (46)     Gap Up $ 210.89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 January 2018   smart_toyLOW (53)     Gap Up $ 196.93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 January 2017   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     Gap Up $ 116.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for ASML Holding NV (exchange: XNAS symbol: ASML) was last updated 27 Jul 2026 04:58. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 24 Jul 2026.