Target Corp (TGT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to TGT's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.14%.   Win rate: 87.50%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.575.   Maximum drawdown: -50.88% on 20 November 2025.
Mean CAGR: 105.12%. Time in market: 2422 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1662.60 on 09 March 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Target Corp

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 16 signal(s) occurring before 17 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (87.50% * 10.11%) + (6.25% * 3.55%) - (6.25% * 30.93%) = 7.14%.
Wins: 14 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Target Corp Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Score Performance
5% 6% 7.5%
08 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (67)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
29 June 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (60)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
02 June 2026 Double Seven   smart_toyLOW (43)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
20 May 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (48)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
14 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (65)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
01 May 2026 Double Seven   smart_toyLOW (35)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
13 April 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (61)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 March 2026 Double Seven   smart_toyLOW (62)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 March 2026 Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (57)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 February 2026 Double Seven   smart_toyLOW (52)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

Gap Up Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Gap Up entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
13 May 2025   smart_toyLOW (53)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Up $ 99.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
22 August 2024   smart_toyLOW (61)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Up $ 158.36 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
16 August 2024   smart_toyLOW (69)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Up $ 142.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
09 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (59)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Up $ 147.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
06 March 2024   smart_toyLOW (35)     Gap Up $ 172.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 November 2023   smart_toyLOW (70)     Gap Up $ 127.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 August 2023   smart_toyLOW (79)     Gap Up $ 127.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 October 2022   smart_toyHIGH (98)     Gap Up $ 156.29 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
02 March 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (55)     Gap Up $ 223.45 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
20 August 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (62)     Gap Up $ 153.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 March 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (97)     Gap Up $ 92.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 November 2019  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Gap Up $ 125.73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 August 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     Gap Up $ 104.08 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 May 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)     Gap Up $ 76.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 March 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Gap Up $ 74.33 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 August 2018   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Up $ 82.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 August 2017   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)     Gap Up $ 51.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 May 2017   smart_toyLOW (75)     Gap Up $ 50.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 November 2016   smart_toyLOW (73)     Gap Up $ 67.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Target Corp (exchange: XNYS symbol: TGT) was last updated 27 Jul 2026 07:54. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 24 Jul 2026.