Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to MTN's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: -2.28%.   Win rate: 72.97%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.673.   Maximum drawdown: -43.83% on 08 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 138.3%. Time in market: 8510 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $363.29 on 09 February 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Vail Resorts

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 37 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (72.97% * 8.50%) + (0% * 0%) - (27.03% * 31.36%) = -2.28%.
Wins: 27 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 10

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Vail Resorts Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
05 May 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.605   Mega Dump Lite $ 123.36 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
01 April 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.699   Mega Dump Lite $ 128.31 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 February 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.811   Mega Dump Lite $ 140.56 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
20 January 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.722   Mega Dump Lite $ 140.44 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
16 December 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.77   Mega Dump Lite $ 158.94 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 November 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.644   Mega Dump Lite $ 146.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
13 October 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.866   Mega Dump Lite $ 150.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
09 September 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.816   Mega Dump Lite $ 149.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
06 August 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.763   Mega Dump Lite $ 149.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
23 June 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.727   Mega Dump Lite $ 156.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
20 May 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.782   Mega Dump Lite $ 151.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
17 April 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.989   Mega Dump Lite $ 137.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.893   Mega Dump Lite $ 161.34 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 February 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.808   Mega Dump Lite $ 165.66 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
08 January 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.793   Mega Dump Lite $ 180.62 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 November 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.87   Mega Dump Lite $ 177.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
14 October 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.784   Mega Dump Lite $ 172.68 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
10 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.839   Mega Dump Lite $ 179.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
09 August 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.847   Mega Dump Lite $ 171.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
08 July 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.79   Mega Dump Lite $ 175.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
04 June 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.593   Mega Dump Lite $ 193.36 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 May 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.637   Mega Dump Lite $ 195.58 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 February 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.827   Mega Dump Lite $ 222.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 January 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.891   Mega Dump Lite $ 211.41 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
07 November 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.886   Mega Dump Lite $ 222.27 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.953   Mega Dump Lite $ 210.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
15 May 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.577   Mega Dump Lite $ 233.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 April 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.641   Mega Dump Lite $ 242.19 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 March 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.618   Mega Dump Lite $ 222.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 February 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.732   Mega Dump Lite $ 255.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 January 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.822   Mega Dump Lite $ 241.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 October 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.993   Mega Dump Lite $ 217.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 September 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.868   Mega Dump Lite $ 224.00 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
15 August 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.816   Mega Dump Lite $ 243.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
12 July 2022   HIGH   smart_toy0.987   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 210.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.8   Mega Dump Lite $ 252.32 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 May 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.912   Mega Dump Lite $ 239.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
05 April 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.889   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 256.34 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 March 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.855   Mega Dump Lite $ 246.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
31 January 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.772   Mega Dump Lite $ 274.72 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 December 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.597   Mega Dump Lite $ 329.78 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 November 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.592   Mega Dump Lite $ 342.01 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 April 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.619   Mega Dump Lite $ 324.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
29 March 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.688   Mega Dump Lite $ 284.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 February 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.847   Mega Dump Lite $ 272.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 July 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.912   Mega Dump Lite $ 193.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.801   Mega Dump Lite $ 184.51 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.719   Mega Dump Lite $ 188.89 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 April 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.962   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 160.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.938   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 156.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 May 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.594   Mega Dump Lite $ 208.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 February 2019   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.849   Mega Dump Lite $ 200.63 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 January 2019   HIGH   smart_toy0.897   FIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 177.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.832   Mega Dump Lite $ 218.99 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 November 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.851   Mega Dump Lite $ 247.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
12 October 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.602   Mega Dump Lite $ 232.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
19 March 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.686   Mega Dump Lite $ 212.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.946   Mega Dump Lite $ 197.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Vail Resorts Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: MTN) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 02 May 2016 - 15 May 2026.