Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to MTN's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -2.74%.   Win rate: 71.79%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.919.   Maximum drawdown: -43.83% on 08 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 131.83%. Time in market: 9319 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $363.29 on 09 February 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Vail Resorts

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 39 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (71.79% * 8.46%) + (0% * 0%) - (28.21% * 31.24%) = -2.74%.
Wins: 28 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 11

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Vail Resorts Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
30 July 2026 Gap Down 46 57 56 92 48 59 schedule schedule schedule
12 June 2026 Gap Up 35 64 62 91 58 52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 June 2026 Gap Up 33 65 62 91 58 51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2026 Gap Down 35 64 62 91 58 52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
05 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite 53 78 68 89 62 69 schedule schedule schedule
04 May 2026 Collapsed Bubble 79 77 68 89 62 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 April 2026 Super Oversold (26) 59 83 68 89 62 74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2026 Super Oversold (26) 44 83 68 88 62 64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 April 2026 Gap Down 32 83 68 88 62 53 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 April 2026 Collapsed Bubble 66 58 68 88 62 71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
05 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 123.36 53 78 68 89 62 69 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
01 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 128.31 49 74 69 88 62 65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 February 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 140.56 44 66 68 89 68 59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
20 January 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 140.44 56 56 69 89 72 64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
16 December 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 158.94 69 62 70 85 71 74 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 November 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 146.60 70 74 72 88 74 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
13 October 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 150.32 69 75 70 76 70 77 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
09 September 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 149.44 68 75 70 77 61 77 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
06 August 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 149.33 50 58 70 76 62 60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
23 June 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 156.18 32 73 76 78 64 51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
20 May 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 151.34 45 60 75 76 65 58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
17 April 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 137.96 92 91 77 73 68 96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 161.34 77 71 78 72 70 80 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 February 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 165.66 45 65 81 73 72 59 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
08 January 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 180.62 55 86 81 72 72 71 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 November 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 177.36 68 91 80 74 73 81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
14 October 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 172.68 48 83 81 68 73 64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
10 September 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 179.84 60 85 81 68 75 74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
09 August 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 171.44 66 80 80 67 75 76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
08 July 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 175.01 53 82 79 76 76 68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
04 June 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 193.36 39 55 78 84 80 52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 May 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 195.58 41 63 81 70 78 54 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 February 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 222.62 43 80 89 66 82 60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 January 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 211.41 61 72 96 65 87 70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
07 November 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 222.27 46 85 100 69 90 63 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 210.68 48 80 100 74 91 64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
15 May 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 233.49 77 79 100 81 93 83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 April 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 242.19 70 68 100 83 92 75 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 March 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 222.66 59 75 100 83 87 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 February 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 255.44 65 74 100 76 73 74 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 January 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 241.02 82 88 100 75 73 89 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 October 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 217.80 89 96 100 76 75 96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 September 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 224.00 87 93 100 75 75 93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
15 August 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 243.46 52 83 100 74 75 68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
12 July 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 210.58 92 93 100 73 73 96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 June 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 252.32 77 86 100 71 73 85 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 May 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 239.95 82 88 100 76 78 89 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
05 April 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 256.34 57 68 100 70 78 67 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 March 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 246.83 54 73 100 71 82 66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
31 January 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 274.72 53 81 100 71 82 68 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 December 2021  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 329.78 58 88 100 67 82 73 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 November 2021  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 342.01 62 84 100 73 82 75 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 April 2021  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 324.54 46 68 100 67 86 59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
29 March 2021  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 284.38 48 70 100 63 86 61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 February 2021  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 272.22 50 53 100 57 83 56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 July 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 193.72 55 83 100 86 92 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 184.51 55 90 100 86 92 72 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 188.89 57 79 100 85 94 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 April 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 160.59 81 93 100 86 94 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 156.62 90 95 100 91 94 97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 May 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 208.47 73 78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 February 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 200.63 64 65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 January 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 177.88 48 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 218.99 86 96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 November 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 247.38 61 90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
12 October 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 232.78 52 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
19 March 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 212.50 42 89 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 197.48 38 69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Vail Resorts Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: MTN) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:30. Data for this stock is available from 02 May 2016 - 12 Aug 2026.