Kohls Corp (KSS) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to KSS's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 5.91%.   Win rate: 92.50%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.968.   Maximum drawdown: -77.39% on 16 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 186.27%. Time in market: 3636 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3840.67 on 30 January 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Kohls

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 40 signal(s) occurring before 30 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (92.50% * 9.95%) + (0% * 0%) - (7.50% * 43.88%) = 5.91%.
Wins: 37 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 3

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Kohls Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
15 December 2025  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.801 Gap Down $ 22.80 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 November 2025  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.929 Gap Down $ 17.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 September 2025  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.683 Gap Down $ 15.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 August 2025   LOW     smart_toy0.604 Gap Down $ 13.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 July 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.776 Gap Down $ 9.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 May 2025   HIGH     smart_toy0.933 Gap Down $ 7.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2025   HIGH     smart_toy0.847 Gap Down $ 8.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 February 2025   HIGH     smart_toy0.913 Gap Down $ 12.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 November 2024   HIGH     smart_toy0.918 Gap Down $ 15.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
23 October 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.831 Gap Down $ 19.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 September 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.827 Gap Down $ 19.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
01 July 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.831 Gap Down $ 22.41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 May 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.468 Gap Down $ 26.30 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
10 April 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.725 Gap Down $ 23.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
30 January 2024   LOW     smart_toy0.652 Gap Down $ 27.29 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 December 2023   LOW     smart_toy0.773 Gap Down $ 25.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
09 November 2023   LOW     smart_toy0.879 Gap Down $ 22.71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 September 2023   LOW     smart_toy0.904 Gap Down $ 22.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 May 2023   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.891 Gap Down $ 18.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 April 2023   LOW     smart_toy0.587 Gap Down $ 22.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 March 2023   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.822 Gap Down $ 22.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 December 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.992 Gap Down $ 30.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
29 August 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH     smart_toy0.843 Gap Down $ 28.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
25 July 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.932 Gap Down $ 29.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
16 June 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.965 Gap Down $ 41.10 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.987 Gap Down $ 47.87 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 July 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.808 Gap Down $ 52.52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
03 June 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.829 Gap Down $ 54.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
20 April 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.851 Gap Down $ 57.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 March 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.883 Gap Down $ 55.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 January 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.75 Gap Down $ 39.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 November 2020   LOW     smart_toy0.641 Gap Down $ 32.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 October 2020   LOW     smart_toy0.923 Gap Down $ 23.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 September 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.969 Gap Down $ 22.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.838 Gap Down $ 20.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.561 Gap Down $ 27.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2020   HIGH   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.679 Gap Down $ 17.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 March 2020   HIGH   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.91 Gap Down $ 16.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 October 2019  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.856 Gap Down $ 49.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
17 September 2019  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.852 Gap Down $ 48.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
01 August 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.918 Gap Down $ 48.43 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
22 April 2019  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.487 Gap Down $ 63.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.966 Gap Down $ 59.21 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
04 December 2018  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.691 Gap Down $ 59.90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
01 August 2018  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.758 Gap Down $ 64.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
07 May 2018  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.606 Gap Down $ 55.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
08 March 2018  bubble_chart   LOW     smart_toy0.711 Gap Down $ 56.26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 October 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.615 Gap Down $ 37.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 August 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.829 Gap Down $ 34.09 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 June 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.688 Gap Down $ 31.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 May 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.603 Gap Down $ 33.35 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 August 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.795 Gap Down $ 32.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 June 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.863 Gap Down $ 29.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Kohls Corp (exchange: XNYS symbol: KSS) was last updated 08 May 2026 01:35. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 07 May 2026.