Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to SWBI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 0.19%.   Win rate: 60.87%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.789.   Maximum drawdown: -65.37% on 20 December 2022.
Mean CAGR: 148.29%. Time in market: 6526 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $861.91 on 08 March 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Smith & Wesson Brands

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 23 signal(s) occurring before 23 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (60.87% * 11.24%) + (17.39% * 5.01%) - (21.74% * 34.62%) = 0.19%.
Wins: 14 Breakevens: 4 Losses: 5

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Smith & Wesson Brands Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (66)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 15.94 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
26 January 2026   smart_toyLOW (69)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 10.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 December 2025   smart_toyLOW (71)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 10.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (66)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 8.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 September 2025   smart_toyLOW (70)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 8.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 July 2025   smart_toyLOW (70)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 8.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 June 2025   smart_toyLOW (66)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 8.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 April 2025   smart_toyHIGH (95)    shopping_cartHIGH   Mega Dump Lite $ 9.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 March 2025   smart_toyLOW (73)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 9.80 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
04 February 2025   smart_toyLOW (68)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 10.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 January 2025   smart_toyLOW (79)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 10.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
07 October 2024   smart_toyLOW (59)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 12.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 September 2024   smart_toyLOW (47)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 14.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (67)     Mega Dump Lite $ 16.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 June 2024   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 14.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
17 January 2024   smart_toyLOW (72)     Mega Dump Lite $ 13.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 December 2023   smart_toyLOW (60)     Mega Dump Lite $ 12.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 October 2023   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 13.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 September 2023   smart_toyLOW (40)     Mega Dump Lite $ 11.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 June 2023   smart_toyLOW (54)     Mega Dump Lite $ 12.76 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 January 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (78)     Mega Dump Lite $ 10.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 December 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (91)     Mega Dump Lite $ 8.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 October 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (90)     Mega Dump Lite $ 10.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 13.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 July 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     Mega Dump Lite $ 13.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     Mega Dump Lite $ 15.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     Mega Dump Lite $ 13.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
19 April 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 14.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 March 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (68)     Mega Dump Lite $ 16.64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 February 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (53)     Mega Dump Lite $ 17.59 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 January 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (66)     Mega Dump Lite $ 17.55 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 December 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (71)     Mega Dump Lite $ 17.94 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 October 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 20.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
31 August 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 24.20 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 July 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (58)     Mega Dump Lite $ 23.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 June 2021   smart_toyLOW (41)     Mega Dump Lite $ 22.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 May 2021   smart_toyLOW (41)     Mega Dump Lite $ 18.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 April 2021   smart_toyLOW (57)     Mega Dump Lite $ 17.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: SWBI) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 09:10. Data for this stock is available from 19 Feb 2021 - 30 Jun 2026.