Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to RGLD's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.67%.   Win rate: 91.30%.   Sharpe Ratio: -3.244.   Maximum drawdown: -43.30% on 16 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 117.84%. Time in market: 3188 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2911.45 on 11 July 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Royal Gold

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 23 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (91.30% * 9.35%) + (8.70% * 1.48%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.67%.
Wins: 21 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Royal Gold Analysis

Market sector: Basic Materials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
10 August 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up 45 64 100 73 53 59 schedule schedule schedule
06 August 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up 39 68 100 73 53 55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 July 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite 45 62 100 72 58 58 schedule schedule schedule
16 July 2026  bubble_chart 26 Week Low 49 62 100 72 58 61 schedule schedule schedule
08 July 2026  bubble_chart 50 Day Low 48 67 100 72 58 61 schedule schedule schedule
07 July 2026  bubble_chart Williams %R (Weekly) 45 72 100 72 58 60 schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026  bubble_chart Oversold Rebound 56 49 100 73 58 60 schedule schedule schedule
23 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down 89 54 100 73 58 81 schedule schedule schedule
16 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up 56 56 100 73 58 63 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
15 June 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite 31 53 100 73 58 45 schedule schedule schedule

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
03 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 286.00 36 73 100 72 64 53 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 January 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 266.86 40 85 100 72 69 59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
09 October 2025 Gap Down $ 199.36 58 73 100 50 68 67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 July 2025 Gap Down $ 167.58 34 58 100 48 61 47 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 May 2025 Gap Down $ 173.55 69 51 100 52 64 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 April 2025 Gap Down $ 158.80 66 74 100 50 65 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 February 2025 Gap Down $ 150.93 38 72 100 50 67 53 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2024 Gap Down $ 139.46 57 94 100 49 68 71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 August 2024 Gap Down $ 128.50 69 74 100 33 71 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 June 2024 Gap Down $ 125.69 46 66 100 72 79 59 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 April 2023 Gap Down $ 134.84 53 64 100 76 87 64 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 March 2023 Gap Down $ 114.46 74 70 100 77 79 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 October 2022 Gap Down $ 95.94 81 94 100 73 66 90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 June 2022 Gap Down $ 111.02 82 93 100 72 68 91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
09 May 2022 Gap Down $ 125.37 63 92 100 78 74 78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 September 2021 Gap Down $ 106.70 46 82 100 83 86 63 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 October 2020 Gap Down $ 117.81 73 93 100 75 89 85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 August 2020 Gap Down $ 131.02 49 76 100 85 89 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 March 2020  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 88.37 82 95 100 85 92 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 February 2020  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 104.31 68 82 100 86 85 79 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 January 2020  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 115.32 52 67 100 85 85 65 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 October 2019  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 125.91 74 91 100 88 87 86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 July 2019  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 115.54 58 59 100 90 81 66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
26 July 2018  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 88.04 23 73 100 98 95 43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 December 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 65.29 51 94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 November 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 71.05 68 80 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
04 October 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 67.94 50 64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
24 August 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 75.23 48 38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
20 July 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 74.62 73 81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
09 May 2016  bubble_chart Gap Down $ 54.16 72 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 January 2016 Gap Down $ 26.11 93 94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 December 2015 Gap Down $ 34.17 61 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Royal Gold Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: RGLD) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 12 Aug 2026.