Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 9.80%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 2.016.   Maximum drawdown: -23.39% on 14 March 2022.
Mean CAGR: 243.71%. Time in market: 885 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2449.19 on 06 January 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 27 signal(s) occurring before 08 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 9.80%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 9.80%.
Wins: 27 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Super Oversold Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Super Oversold entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
12 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.881   Super Oversold (GD) $ 75.46 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
11 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.912   Super Oversold (52) $ 78.29 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
05 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.717   Super Oversold (26) $ 81.98 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
05 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.717   Super Oversold (GD) $ 81.98 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 May 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.764   Super Oversold (RoC) $ 83.68 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 March 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.588   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 93.52 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 March 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.573   Super Oversold (26) $ 97.68 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 March 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.703   Super Oversold (26) $ 102.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
20 December 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.838   Super Oversold (26) $ 46.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 March 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 38.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 March 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.961   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 38.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 February 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.894   Super Oversold (26) $ 42.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 January 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 44.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 January 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.983   Super Oversold (MD) $ 44.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.861   Super Oversold (26) $ 46.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.869   Super Oversold (MD) $ 47.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.539   Super Oversold (52) $ 49.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH     Super Oversold (26) $ 50.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.817   Super Oversold (52) $ 50.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
01 October 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.728   Super Oversold (52) $ 60.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 September 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.833   Super Oversold (26) $ 63.78 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
20 September 2021  bubble_chart   LOW     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 66.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
20 September 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.766   Super Oversold (MD) $ 66.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
27 August 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.832   Super Oversold (26) $ 69.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
18 March 2020   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (GD) $ 36.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 March 2020   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 36.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.969   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 36.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.888   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 43.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2020   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 41.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.946   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 41.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 February 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.897   Super Oversold (26) $ 49.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 August 2019   HIGH     Super Oversold (26) $ 57.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 August 2019   HIGH   smart_toy0.787   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (GD) $ 57.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 December 2018   HIGH     FIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 62.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 December 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.975   FIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 62.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 15 May 2026 23:40. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 15 May 2026.