Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.34%.   Win rate: 90.91%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.833.   Maximum drawdown: -61.88% on 14 March 2022.
Mean CAGR: 108.35%. Time in market: 4795 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1945.45 on 05 June 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 33 signal(s) occurring before 02 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (90.91% * 9.18%) + (3.03% * 0.55%) - (6.06% * 33.41%) = 6.34%.
Wins: 30 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 June 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 77.12 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 April 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 94.66 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 March 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 102.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
22 January 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 114.39 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 December 2025   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 112.44 select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 July 2025   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 125.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
16 April 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Gap Down $ 111.89 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 March 2025   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 100.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 December 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 112.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 November 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 94.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 October 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 94.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 June 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 86.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 March 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 77.55 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 January 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 72.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 August 2023   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 72.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 May 2023   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 64.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2022   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 50.83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 November 2022   cards_starMEDIUM     Gap Down $ 54.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 September 2022   cards_starHIGH     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 53.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 August 2022   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 63.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 March 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 41.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 February 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 44.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 January 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 46.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2021  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 52.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
04 November 2021  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 71.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2021  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 90.42 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 May 2021  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 81.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
28 January 2021  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 101.22 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 December 2020  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 79.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 June 2020  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 99.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
11 March 2020  bubble_chart   cards_starHIGH     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 47.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 January 2020  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 64.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 November 2019  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 65.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
29 July 2019  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 87.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2019  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 90.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 December 2018  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 71.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 November 2018  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Gap Down $ 89.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 July 2018   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 71.65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2018   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 73.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 January 2018   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 56.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2017   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 48.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 October 2017   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 45.00 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 June 2017   LOW     Gap Down $ 42.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 August 2016   LOW     Gap Down $ 27.20 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 June 2016   LOW     Gap Down $ 25.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 14 Jun 2026 16:17. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 09 Jun 2026.