Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Simple Mean Reversion Simple Mean Reversion (RoC) Gap Up Rate of Change
Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB/OR
Collapsed Bubble Collapsed Bubble (RoC) Oversold Rebound Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: On Off Scores: All Low Medium High Very High Market sector score: All Low High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.07%. Win rate: 95.00%. Sharpe Ratio: -1.094. Maximum drawdown: -58.89% on 19 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 144.6%. Time in market: 2439 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2214.87 on 03 May 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 20 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (95.00% * 9.13%) + (0% * 0%) - (5.00% * 12.13%) = 8.07%.
Wins: 19 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
23 June 2026 smart_toyLOW (61) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 73.16	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
22 April 2026 smart_toyLOW (48) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 88.82	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
03 March 2026 smart_toyLOW (46) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 101.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	schedule	schedule	schedule
29 January 2026 smart_toyLOW (57) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 107.10	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	schedule	schedule	schedule
03 December 2025 smart_toyLOW (62) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 119.08	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
07 October 2025 smart_toyLOW (73) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 124.58	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
24 February 2025 smart_toyLOW (67) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 96.38	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
19 November 2024 smart_toyLOW (71) shopping_cartLOW	50 Day Low	$ 89.55	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2024 smart_toyLOW (56)	50 Day Low	$ 69.84	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 December 2023 smart_toyLOW (66)	50 Day Low	$ 70.33	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2022 smart_toyMEDIUM (80)	50 Day Low	$ 50.83	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
30 August 2022 smart_toyMEDIUM (81)	50 Day Low	$ 57.70	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
17 February 2022 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (74)	50 Day Low	$ 42.01	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 January 2022 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (59)	50 Day Low	$ 46.24	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (74)	50 Day Low	$ 50.38	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (52)	50 Day Low	$ 66.44	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box
17 August 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (41)	50 Day Low	$ 83.02	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
12 May 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (32)	50 Day Low	$ 81.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default
04 December 2020 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (57)	50 Day Low	$ 79.96	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2020 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (64)	50 Day Low	$ 82.85	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 September 2020 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (63)	50 Day Low	$ 93.92	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
05 March 2020 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (81)	50 Day Low	$ 47.42	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 January 2020 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (59)	50 Day Low	$ 55.98	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 August 2019 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (57)	50 Day Low	$ 81.24	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2019 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (53)	50 Day Low	$ 87.45	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
24 December 2018 bubble_chart smart_toyHIGH (95) sirenFIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 61.23	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 November 2018 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (74) sirenFIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 84.13	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
01 August 2018 smart_toyLOW (48)	50 Day Low	$ 68.52	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 15 Jul 2026.