Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to OLLI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.07%.   Win rate: 95.00%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.094.   Maximum drawdown: -58.89% on 19 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 144.6%. Time in market: 2439 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2214.87 on 03 May 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ollies Bargain Outlet

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 20 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (95.00% * 9.13%) + (0% * 0%) - (5.00% * 12.13%) = 8.07%.
Wins: 19 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ollies Bargain Outlet Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 April 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.51  factory0.422   50 Day Low $ 88.82 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 March 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.601  factory0.392   50 Day Low $ 101.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
29 January 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.92  factory0.519   50 Day Low $ 107.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
03 December 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.802  factory0.603   50 Day Low $ 119.08 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
07 October 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.588  factory0.599   50 Day Low $ 124.58 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 February 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.779  factory0.676   50 Day Low $ 96.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
19 November 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.891  factory0.631   50 Day Low $ 89.55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2024   LOW   smart_toy0.791  factory0.38   50 Day Low $ 69.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 December 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.844  factory0.708   50 Day Low $ 70.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.603  factory0.831   50 Day Low $ 50.83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 August 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.738  factory0.883   50 Day Low $ 57.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 February 2022  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.894  factory0.763   50 Day Low $ 42.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 January 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.975  factory0.498   50 Day Low $ 46.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2021  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.817  factory0.83   50 Day Low $ 50.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.766  factory0.65   50 Day Low $ 66.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
17 August 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.756  factory0.427   50 Day Low $ 83.02 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 May 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.732  factory0.36   50 Day Low $ 81.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
04 December 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.763  factory0.682   50 Day Low $ 79.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.869  factory0.744   50 Day Low $ 82.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 September 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.969  factory0.722   50 Day Low $ 93.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 March 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.487  factory0.786   50 Day Low $ 47.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 January 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.995  factory0.639   50 Day Low $ 55.98 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 August 2019  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.678  factory0.685   50 Day Low $ 81.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2019  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.865  factory0.74   50 Day Low $ 87.45 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2018  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.941  factory0.947   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 61.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 November 2018  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.923  factory0.885   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 84.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 August 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.789  factory0.786   50 Day Low $ 68.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: OLLI) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 29 May 2026.