Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to ENPH's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 6.25%.   Win rate: 88.89%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.232.   Maximum drawdown: -81.27% on 13 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 181.26%. Time in market: 5158 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3290.56 on 15 February 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Enphase Energy

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 45 signal(s) occurring before 22 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (88.89% * 10.51%) + (6.67% * 3.92%) - (4.44% * 75.38%) = 6.25%.
Wins: 40 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Enphase Energy Analysis

Market sector: Energy.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
07 April 2026   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.899 Gap Down $ 32.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
29 January 2026   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.652 Gap Down $ 39.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 October 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.855 Gap Down $ 31.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 September 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.902 Gap Down $ 39.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 July 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.978 Gap Down $ 34.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 May 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.908 Gap Down $ 51.05 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 April 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.818 Gap Down $ 58.91 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
27 February 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.925 Gap Down $ 62.18 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 November 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.898 Gap Down $ 76.00 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 July 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.56 Gap Down $ 113.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
07 June 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.585 Gap Down $ 126.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
30 April 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.588 Gap Down $ 110.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 February 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.854 Gap Down $ 121.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
24 August 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.958 Gap Down $ 126.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 May 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.942 Gap Down $ 155.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
19 January 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.974 Gap Down $ 234.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 December 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.708 Gap Down $ 321.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 September 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.986 Gap Down $ 282.71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
16 June 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.89 Gap Down $ 174.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 May 2022   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.989 Gap Down $ 143.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 February 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.904 Gap Down $ 155.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 December 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.789 Gap Down $ 245.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.574 Gap Down $ 153.55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 April 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.646 Gap Down $ 148.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 February 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.616 Gap Down $ 200.78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
01 December 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.805 Gap Down $ 133.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 October 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.772 Gap Down $ 107.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 July 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.796 Gap Down $ 54.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 June 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.955 Gap Down $ 58.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 April 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.874 Gap Down $ 47.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 March 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.97 Gap Down $ 33.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2020  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.407 Gap Down $ 54.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 November 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.595 Gap Down $ 22.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 October 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.89 Gap Down $ 24.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.937 Gap Down $ 26.94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.763 Gap Down $ 16.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 December 2018  bubble_chart   HIGH     smart_toy0.959 Gap Down $ 4.89 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 October 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.655 Gap Down $ 4.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.967 Gap Down $ 4.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 August 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.9 Gap Down $ 5.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 June 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.715 Gap Down $ 7.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
02 February 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.622 Gap Down $ 2.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 November 2017  bubble_chart   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.739 Gap Down $ 2.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 October 2017   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.685 Gap Down $ 1.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 September 2017   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.687 Gap Down $ 1.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 August 2017   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.892 Gap Down $ 0.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 June 2017   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.94 Gap Down $ 0.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 May 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.859 Gap Down $ 1.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 April 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.588 Gap Down $ 1.34 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 February 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.443 Gap Down $ 1.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 January 2017   LOW     smart_toy0.987 Gap Down $ 1.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 October 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.924 Gap Down $ 1.09 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 September 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.753 Gap Down $ 1.55 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 August 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.863 Gap Down $ 1.89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.394 Gap Down $ 2.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 May 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.431 Gap Down $ 1.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 April 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.285 Gap Down $ 2.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Enphase Energy Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ENPH) was last updated 30 Apr 2026 06:53. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 29 Apr 2026.