EBay Inc (EBAY) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to EBAY's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 3.76%.   Win rate: 82.14%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.883.   Maximum drawdown: -46.21% on 12 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 105.99%. Time in market: 5207 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1832.63 on 28 February 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for EBay

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 28 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (82.14% * 8.76%) + (7.14% * 1.40%) - (10.71% * 33.04%) = 3.76%.
Wins: 23 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 3

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

EBay Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
12 February 2026  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.876  factory0.467   50 Day Low $ 81.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 October 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.602  factory0.681   50 Day Low $ 84.66 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 April 2025   LOW   smart_toy0.973  factory0.849   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 63.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 November 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.722  factory0.647   50 Day Low $ 57.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.935  factory0.811   50 Day Low $ 41.91 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 August 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.794  factory0.541   50 Day Low $ 42.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
31 May 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.901  factory0.799   50 Day Low $ 42.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 March 2023   LOW   smart_toy0.669  factory0.689   50 Day Low $ 40.65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
16 September 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.801  factory0.889   50 Day Low $ 41.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.962  factory0.894   50 Day Low $ 42.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
05 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.789  factory0.875   50 Day Low $ 49.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 February 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.906  factory0.492   50 Day Low $ 56.62 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 January 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.709  factory0.448   50 Day Low $ 63.31 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 November 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.791  factory0.666   50 Day Low $ 68.90 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
30 October 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.781  factory0.726   50 Day Low $ 48.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 September 2020  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.817  factory0.71   50 Day Low $ 51.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.984  factory0.925   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 32.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
31 January 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.653  factory0.706   50 Day Low $ 33.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
31 October 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.826  factory0.63   50 Day Low $ 35.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
25 September 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.704  factory0.626   50 Day Low $ 38.61 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
23 May 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.623  factory0.881   50 Day Low $ 35.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 December 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.982  factory0.925   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 25.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 October 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.701  factory0.755   50 Day Low $ 32.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 July 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.475  factory0.692   50 Day Low $ 32.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 June 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.853  factory0.861   50 Day Low $ 36.25 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 April 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.68  factory0.637   50 Day Low $ 38.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 November 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.825  factory0.603   50 Day Low $ 34.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.777  factory0.585   50 Day Low $ 31.69 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 December 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.676  factory0.549   50 Day Low $ 27.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 October 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.671  factory0.618   50 Day Low $ 28.59 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 June 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.864  factory0.821   50 Day Low $ 22.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 May 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.666  factory0.746   50 Day Low $ 22.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for EBay Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: EBAY) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 29 May 2026.