Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to CINF's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 8.28%.   Win rate: 88.89%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.447.   Maximum drawdown: -52.96% on 14 May 2020.
Mean CAGR: 102.63%. Time in market: 2319 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2351.33 on 13 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Cincinnati Financial

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 18 signal(s) occurring before 19 March 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (88.89% * 9.22%) + (11.11% * 0.76%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.28%.
Wins: 16 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Cincinnati Financial Analysis

Market sector: Financials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Williams %R (Weekly) Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Williams %R (Weekly) entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
25 March 2026   40     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 157.34 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 April 2025  bubble_chart   35     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 136.65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 February 2025  bubble_chart   35     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 135.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2023  bubble_chart   55     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 97.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 June 2023  bubble_chart   55     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 95.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 May 2023  bubble_chart   55     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 101.81 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
21 September 2022  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 96.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 July 2022  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 112.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 June 2022  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 120.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 December 2021   30     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 114.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 October 2021  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 113.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2020  bubble_chart   30     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 75.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 April 2020  bubble_chart   30     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 66.49 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 February 2020  bubble_chart   35     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 102.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 December 2019  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 101.59 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
21 November 2019  bubble_chart   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 104.72 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
21 June 2018   45     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 64.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 May 2018   45     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 66.25 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2017   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 67.35 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
20 October 2016   25     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 66.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 January 2016       Williams %R (Weekly) $ 48.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Cincinnati Financial Corp (exchange: XNAS symbol: CINF) was last updated 27 Mar 2026 10:48. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 26 Mar 2026.