Ark Innovation (ARKK) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:            
                           
                              [ What are these? | Switch to ARKK's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -7.79%.   Win rate: 72.73%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.847.   Maximum drawdown: -78.14% on 28 December 2022.
Mean CAGR: 117.36%. Time in market: 8318 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $74.42 on 06 November 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ark Innovation

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 33 signal(s) occurring before 13 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (72.73% * 9.07%) + (0% * 0%) - (27.27% * 52.73%) = -7.79%.
Wins: 24 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 9

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 July 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 76.44 31 17 71 92 34 33 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 June 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 75.56 22 16 70 92 35 27 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 April 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 74.02 26 27 70 88 33 35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
13 March 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 70.91 45 34 70 88 43 50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
09 February 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 71.34 49 24 69 92 46 47 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
16 December 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 79.64 61 21 68 93 51 51 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 November 2025  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 82.06 56 26 68 95 53 52 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 August 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 73.52 49 17 64 90 29 42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 56.98 41 32 69 90 31 47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 April 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 46.32 79 61 68 87 32 81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 March 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 48.82 39 54 68 90 35 53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 January 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 58.58 36 39 65 92 33 46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 October 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 46.92 53 41 64 93 31 58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 August 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 44.86 39 16 62 93 34 37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 July 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 46.08 38 18 60 91 31 38 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 May 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 44.14 30 21 55 95 39 35 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 April 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 43.33 32 16 55 90 34 33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 February 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 49.38 30 25 57 87 37 36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 January 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 49.62 40 22 66 86 51 41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 November 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 46.04 42 15 80 87 67 37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
27 October 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 34.69 33 48 75 88 64 46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 September 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.68 25 36 75 88 67 36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 August 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 41.30 26 16 71 89 65 29 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 May 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.96 58 41 50 99 50 61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 March 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 39.58 64 68 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 February 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 42.12 28 22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 January 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 32.62 87 61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 December 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 35.30 75 54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 November 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.14 81 68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 October 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 37.95 89 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 August 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 42.36 78 43 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 July 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 44.97 76 46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
27 June 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 45.31 87 76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 May 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 40.16 84 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 55.55 42 56 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
21 March 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 64.56 33 53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 February 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 74.14 37 51 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 January 2022 Mega Dump Lite $ 79.84 46 38 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 December 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 95.14 45 44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 November 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 122.24 40 40 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 October 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 111.90 34 45 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
23 August 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 118.24 35 26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 July 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 119.14 33 24 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 June 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 116.47 28 11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
14 May 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 103.08 27 15 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 April 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 123.00 37 14 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 March 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 135.88 37 20 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for Ark Innovation (exchange: ARCX symbol: ARKK) was last updated 21 Aug 2026 07:24. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 20 Aug 2026.