Target Corp (TGT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to TGT's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.23%.   Win rate: 93.33%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.184.   Maximum drawdown: -45.65% on 20 November 2025.
Mean CAGR: 130.69%. Time in market: 3766 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3254.92 on 22 May 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Target Corp

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 30 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (93.33% * 9.45%) + (3.33% * 1.22%) - (3.33% * 19.01%) = 8.23%.
Wins: 28 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Target Corp Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
19 November 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 86.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 September 2025   smart_toyLOW (60)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 93.78 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 March 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)    shopping_cartLOW   sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 104.47 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 February 2025   smart_toyLOW (57)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 128.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 124.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
05 August 2024   smart_toyLOW (74)     50 Day Low $ 134.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 May 2024   smart_toyLOW (42)     50 Day Low $ 156.24 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 September 2023   smart_toyLOW (72)     50 Day Low $ 110.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 August 2023   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     50 Day Low $ 123.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 June 2023   smart_toyLOW (44)     50 Day Low $ 124.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2023   smart_toyLOW (64)     50 Day Low $ 152.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 March 2023   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     50 Day Low $ 155.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2022   smart_toyHIGH (90)     50 Day Low $ 146.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 October 2022   smart_toyHIGH (95)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 148.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 May 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 162.34 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
23 February 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (58)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 193.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 January 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)     50 Day Low $ 218.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
17 December 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (60)     50 Day Low $ 224.07 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
14 September 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (74)     50 Day Low $ 242.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 April 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 92.55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 February 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 106.43 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2019   smart_toyLOW (61)     50 Day Low $ 70.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 December 2018   smart_toyHIGH (95)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 62.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 November 2018   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 77.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
23 March 2018   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)     50 Day Low $ 64.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2017   smart_toyLOW (59)     50 Day Low $ 51.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (73)     50 Day Low $ 47.19 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 April 2017   smart_toyLOW (71)     50 Day Low $ 47.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 February 2017   smart_toyLOW (59)     50 Day Low $ 56.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
19 January 2017   smart_toyLOW (57)     50 Day Low $ 58.57 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 October 2016   smart_toyLOW (74)     50 Day Low $ 59.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
09 September 2016   smart_toyLOW (37)     50 Day Low $ 60.87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
14 June 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)     50 Day Low $ 58.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 May 2016   smart_toyLOW (56)     50 Day Low $ 66.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 January 2016   smart_toyHIGH (91)     50 Day Low $ 59.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 November 2015   smart_toyLOW (77)     50 Day Low $ 62.24 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for Target Corp (exchange: XNYS symbol: TGT) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 15 Jul 2026.