Polaris Inc (PII) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results military_tech

Buy indicator:                  
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to PII's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 5.02%.   Win rate: 81.48%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.318.   Maximum drawdown: -65.20% on 16 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 86.66%. Time in market: 5285 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1249.85 on 13 April 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Polaris Inc

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 27 signal(s) occurring before 30 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (81.48% * 8.54%) + (11.11% * 0.94%) - (7.41% * 27.60%) = 5.02%.
Wins: 22 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Polaris Inc Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
15 April 2026   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.812 Gap Down $ 48.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 January 2026   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.887 Gap Down $ 65.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 October 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.853 Gap Down $ 68.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
12 September 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.728 Gap Down $ 58.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 July 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.821 Gap Down $ 55.94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 May 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.994 Gap Down $ 39.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2025   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.99 Gap Down $ 38.03 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 April 2024   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.738 Gap Down $ 93.70 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 March 2023   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.688 Gap Down $ 116.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
29 September 2022   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.98 Gap Down $ 99.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 August 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.802 Gap Down $ 119.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
16 May 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.955 Gap Down $ 108.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 March 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.814 Gap Down $ 118.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 January 2022   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.926 Gap Down $ 115.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
02 June 2021   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.805 Gap Down $ 130.04 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 March 2021   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.753 Gap Down $ 131.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
27 January 2021   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.641 Gap Down $ 120.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 October 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.933 Gap Down $ 93.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 April 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.73 Gap Down $ 71.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 March 2020   HIGH   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.994 Gap Down $ 48.57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 January 2020   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.772 Gap Down $ 96.83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2019   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.662 Gap Down $ 97.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 June 2019   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.887 Gap Down $ 86.57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
06 May 2019   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.72 Gap Down $ 94.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 December 2018   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.929 Gap Down $ 92.59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 October 2018   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE   smart_toy0.757 Gap Down $ 85.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
24 April 2018   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.785 Gap Down $ 106.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
22 March 2018   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.853 Gap Down $ 111.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
30 January 2018   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.903 Gap Down $ 111.45 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
21 March 2017   MEDIUM     smart_toy0.726 Gap Down $ 79.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 September 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.896 Gap Down $ 68.71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 August 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.997 Gap Down $ 87.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2016   LOW     smart_toy0.835 Gap Down $ 73.81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 December 2015   LOW     smart_toy0.851 Gap Down $ 89.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Polaris Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: PII) was last updated 08 May 2026 01:35. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 07 May 2026.