Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to MTN's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -3.37%.   Win rate: 66.67%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.023.   Maximum drawdown: -41.40% on 24 April 2026.
Mean CAGR: 78.88%. Time in market: 2554 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $754.69 on 20 April 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Vail Resorts

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 9 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (66.67% * 8.11%) + (0% * 0%) - (33.33% * 26.31%) = -3.37%.
Wins: 6 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 3

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Vail Resorts Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
30 July 2026 Gap Down 46 57 56 92 48 59 schedule schedule schedule
12 June 2026 Gap Up 35 64 62 91 58 52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 June 2026 Gap Up 33 65 62 91 58 51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2026 Gap Down 35 64 62 91 58 52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
05 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite 53 78 68 89 62 69 schedule schedule schedule
04 May 2026 Collapsed Bubble 79 77 68 89 62 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 April 2026 Super Oversold (26) 59 83 68 89 62 74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2026 Super Oversold (26) 44 83 68 88 62 64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 April 2026 Gap Down 32 83 68 88 62 53 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 April 2026 Collapsed Bubble 66 58 68 88 62 71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
27 March 2026 52 Week Low $ 128.09 72 76 69 88 62 81 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 February 2026 52 Week Low $ 131.78 63 80 69 89 72 76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
30 December 2025 52 Week Low $ 134.23 84 75 70 85 71 87 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box schedule
04 April 2025 52 Week Low $ 148.12 82 58 77 73 69 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 February 2025 52 Week Low $ 165.66 49 65 81 73 72 61 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
22 October 2024 52 Week Low $ 169.15 65 62 82 68 73 70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
07 August 2024 52 Week Low $ 169.58 83 78 80 65 75 85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
03 July 2024 52 Week Low $ 173.40 52 88 79 76 77 70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
29 May 2024 52 Week Low $ 186.86 39 61 78 84 80 53 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
19 April 2024 52 Week Low $ 206.07 51 76 81 70 78 65 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 October 2023 52 Week Low $ 207.14 57 68 100 74 91 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
23 September 2022  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 208.18 82 93 100 75 75 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 June 2022  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 223.06 96 88 100 71 72 97 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 February 2022  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 265.91 72 77 100 71 82 79 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 March 2020 52 Week Low $ 195.31 57 85 100 91 87 73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 January 2019 52 Week Low $ 178.50 88 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Vail Resorts Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: MTN) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:30. Data for this stock is available from 02 May 2016 - 12 Aug 2026.