Merck & Co Inc (MRK) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to MRK's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.11%.   Win rate: 76.81%.   Sharpe Ratio: -16.206.   Maximum drawdown: -43.25% on 15 May 2025.
Mean CAGR: 68.76%. Time in market: 15855 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3067.61 on 17 April 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Merck & Co

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 69 signal(s) occurring before 01 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (76.81% * 8.44%) + (17.39% * 0.87%) - (5.80% * 9.18%) = 6.11%.
Wins: 53 Breakevens: 12 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Merck & Co Analysis

Market sector: Healthcare.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Double Seven Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Double Seven entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
05 June 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 120.86 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 May 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 112.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
31 March 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 119.66 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
27 February 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 121.75 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
26 January 2026   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 107.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
16 December 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 99.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 November 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 92.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 October 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 85.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 July 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 124.68 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
21 June 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 130.44 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
20 May 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 130.90 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 April 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 125.81 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 March 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 120.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
12 February 2024   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 124.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 August 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 103.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 July 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 111.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 June 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 108.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
01 May 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 112.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 March 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 106.07 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
22 February 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 109.68 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 January 2023   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 109.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 December 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 109.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 November 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 99.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 October 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 87.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 September 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 86.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 August 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 88.94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 June 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 93.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 May 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 92.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
25 April 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 85.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 February 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 76.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 January 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 80.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 December 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 76.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 83.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 October 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 79.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
01 February 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 77.68 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 December 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 81.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 November 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 80.10 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 October 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 80.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 September 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 85.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 80.61 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 February 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 84.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 January 2020   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 90.71 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 December 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 85.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 November 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 84.75 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 September 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 82.47 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
27 August 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 84.15 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
26 July 2019   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 79.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
24 June 2019   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 83.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 77.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 April 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 71.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 March 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 79.07 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 February 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 75.25 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
11 January 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 72.25 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 December 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 74.26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
05 November 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 69.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 October 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 68.91 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 August 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 65.33 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 July 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 58.33 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 May 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 55.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 November 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 51.07 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2017   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 59.14 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 September 2017   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 59.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2017   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 57.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 July 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 June 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.94 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 May 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 57.05 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 March 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 57.93 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 February 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 59.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 January 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 56.77 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 December 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 55.87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
15 November 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 57.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 October 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 56.31 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 September 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 56.05 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 August 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 56.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 July 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 52.57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 June 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 49.97 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 April 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 49.90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 March 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 46.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Merck & Co Inc (exchange: XNYS symbol: MRK) was last updated 14 Jun 2026 16:17. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 08 Jun 2026.