Carnival Corp (CCL) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to CCL's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 0.89%.   Win rate: 78.38%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.646.   Maximum drawdown: -86.48% on 02 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 138.21%. Time in market: 6667 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $577.82 on 18 September 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Carnival

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 37 signal(s) occurring before 18 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (78.38% * 10.25%) + (5.41% * 2.00%) - (16.22% * 44.71%) = 0.89%.
Wins: 29 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 6

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Carnival Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
27 March 2026   smart_toyLOW (52)    shopping_cartLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 24.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 February 2026   smart_toyLOW (44)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 31.17 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
28 October 2025   smart_toyLOW (63)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 28.12 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
28 March 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (67)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 20.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 February 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (59)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 25.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 December 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (57)     Gap Down $ 25.98 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
17 July 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (39)     Gap Down $ 18.54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 June 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Down $ 15.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 March 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (37)     Gap Down $ 16.67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 January 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (53)     Gap Down $ 16.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 August 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (43)     Gap Down $ 18.08 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 June 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)     Gap Down $ 14.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 April 2023   smart_toyLOW (77)     Gap Down $ 9.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 January 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (79)     Gap Down $ 10.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 December 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Gap Down $ 9.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     Gap Down $ 8.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     Gap Down $ 9.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 August 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (91)     Gap Down $ 10.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 July 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 9.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (75)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 9.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 13.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 April 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (39)     Gap Down $ 19.38 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 January 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (38)     Gap Down $ 22.25 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 November 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (64)     Gap Down $ 18.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 July 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Down $ 21.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 June 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (34)     Gap Down $ 29.31 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 April 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (40)     Gap Down $ 28.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 March 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (62)     Gap Down $ 28.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
25 January 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Down $ 19.51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 December 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)     Gap Down $ 20.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 November 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     Gap Down $ 17.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
31 August 2020   smart_toyLOW (76)     Gap Down $ 16.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 July 2020   smart_toyLOW (70)     Gap Down $ 14.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2020   smart_toyLOW (73)     Gap Down $ 14.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 April 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 12.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 March 2020   smart_toyLOW (69)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 22.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 September 2019   smart_toyLOW (58)     Gap Down $ 43.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
23 August 2019   smart_toyLOW (77)     Gap Down $ 43.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
20 June 2019   smart_toyLOW (53)     Gap Down $ 46.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
26 March 2019   smart_toyLOW (59)     Gap Down $ 49.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 December 2018   smart_toyLOW (68)     Gap Down $ 56.06 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 September 2018   smart_toyLOW (36)     Gap Down $ 59.11 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 June 2018   smart_toyLOW (30)     Gap Down $ 56.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
26 May 2016   smart_toyLOW (55)     Gap Down $ 42.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Carnival Corp (exchange: XNYS symbol: CCL) was last updated 26 Jun 2026 05:21. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 25 Jun 2026.