American Express Company (AXP) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to AXP's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 8.90%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 0.586.   Maximum drawdown: -40.86% on 23 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 132.21%. Time in market: 1236 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3191.23 on 14 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for American Express

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 19 signal(s) occurring before 19 March 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 8.90%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.90%.
Wins: 19 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

American Express Analysis

Market sector: Financials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
18 March 2026   20     50 Day Low $ 296.77 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 February 2026  bubble_chart   20     50 Day Low $ 349.69 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 April 2025  bubble_chart   20     50 Day Low $ 235.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2025  bubble_chart   25     50 Day Low $ 287.52 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2023   15     50 Day Low $ 142.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 September 2023   15     50 Day Low $ 154.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 August 2023   15     50 Day Low $ 161.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 April 2023   15     50 Day Low $ 155.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 September 2022   40     50 Day Low $ 138.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 June 2022   40     50 Day Low $ 145.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 May 2022   40     50 Day Low $ 154.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
29 November 2021   15     50 Day Low $ 159.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 September 2021   15     50 Day Low $ 159.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 October 2020  bubble_chart   15     50 Day Low $ 91.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 February 2020  bubble_chart   20     50 Day Low $ 119.22 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 October 2019  bubble_chart   10     50 Day Low $ 112.85 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 August 2019  bubble_chart   10     50 Day Low $ 118.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 December 2018   50     50 Day Low $ 99.13 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 October 2018   40     50 Day Low $ 99.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 February 2018   15     50 Day Low $ 88.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 April 2017   15     50 Day Low $ 72.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 September 2016       50 Day Low $ 59.81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 June 2016       50 Day Low $ 56.55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for American Express Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: AXP) was last updated 27 Mar 2026 10:54. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 26 Mar 2026.