Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to ADM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 3.43%.   Win rate: 85.37%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.454.   Maximum drawdown: -47.41% on 05 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 88.68%. Time in market: 6785 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1235.17 on 11 July 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Archer Daniels Midland

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 41 signal(s) occurring before 19 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (85.37% * 8.16%) + (4.88% * 0.90%) - (9.76% * 36.71%) = 3.43%.
Wins: 35 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Archer Daniels Midland Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
26 June 2026      factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 76.62 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 April 2026   smart_toyLOW (56)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 69.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
24 March 2026   smart_toyLOW (73)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 69.90 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
15 December 2025   smart_toyLOW (68)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 59.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (71)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 57.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2025   smart_toyHIGH (92)    factoryHIGH   sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 48.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 March 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 45.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 February 2025   smart_toyLOW (76)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 45.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 January 2025   smart_toyLOW (66)    factoryLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 51.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 December 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 51.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 November 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Mega Dump Lite $ 52.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 September 2024   smart_toyLOW (78)     Mega Dump Lite $ 59.33 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     Mega Dump Lite $ 58.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     Mega Dump Lite $ 59.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
01 March 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (76)     Mega Dump Lite $ 54.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
29 January 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Mega Dump Lite $ 54.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
10 October 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (76)     Mega Dump Lite $ 73.84 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 June 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (71)     Mega Dump Lite $ 71.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 May 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 73.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
13 February 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (70)     Mega Dump Lite $ 82.00 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     Mega Dump Lite $ 85.96 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Mega Dump Lite $ 97.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (88)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 81.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
12 August 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 85.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
11 July 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 72.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (88)     Mega Dump Lite $ 88.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
05 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (79)     Mega Dump Lite $ 90.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2021   smart_toyLOW (70)     Mega Dump Lite $ 58.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 June 2021   smart_toyLOW (66)     Mega Dump Lite $ 61.47 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 December 2020   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 50.08 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 November 2020   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 47.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 July 2020   smart_toyLOW (73)     Mega Dump Lite $ 39.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (67)     Mega Dump Lite $ 42.25 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 May 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 35.53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (93)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 35.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.67 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 September 2019   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
09 August 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 36.94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 June 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Mega Dump Lite $ 37.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 January 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)     Mega Dump Lite $ 42.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2018   smart_toyHIGH (96)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 38.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2018   smart_toyLOW (70)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 44.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 December 2017   smart_toyLOW (67)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 November 2017   smart_toyLOW (73)     Mega Dump Lite $ 36.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (63)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.02 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 May 2017   smart_toyLOW (54)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 December 2016   smart_toyLOW (58)     Mega Dump Lite $ 41.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 November 2016   smart_toyLOW (75)     Mega Dump Lite $ 38.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
29 June 2016   smart_toyLOW (77)     Mega Dump Lite $ 36.41 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
08 April 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)     Mega Dump Lite $ 31.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2016   smart_toyLOW (76)     Mega Dump Lite $ 32.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 February 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (89)     Mega Dump Lite $ 30.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 December 2015   smart_toyLOW (67)     Mega Dump Lite $ 31.92 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 November 2015   smart_toyLOW (71)     Mega Dump Lite $ 31.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Archer Daniels Midland Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: ADM) was last updated 29 Jun 2026 07:54. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 26 Jun 2026.