Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ADM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 3.43%.   Win rate: 85.37%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.454.   Maximum drawdown: -47.41% on 05 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 88.68%. Time in market: 6785 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1235.17 on 11 July 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Archer Daniels Midland

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 41 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (85.37% * 8.16%) + (4.88% * 0.90%) - (9.76% * 36.71%) = 3.43%.
Wins: 35 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Archer Daniels Midland Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
11 August 2026 Mega Dump Lite 64 62 65 89 46 73 schedule schedule schedule
27 July 2026 Gap Down 54 73 66 89 46 69 schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 70 60 68 90 54 75 schedule schedule schedule
23 June 2026 Double Seven 55 51 68 90 54 63 schedule schedule schedule
10 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 38 41 67 90 54 47 schedule schedule schedule
05 June 2026 Gap Down 52 71 66 89 53 67 schedule schedule schedule
29 May 2026 Oversold Rebound 54 78 66 89 53 70 schedule schedule schedule
27 May 2026 Double Seven 44 76 66 89 53 63 schedule schedule schedule
20 May 2026 Double Seven 45 90 68 90 54 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
24 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite 56 82 68 86 54 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
11 August 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 80.34 64 62 65 89 46 73 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 76.62 70 60 68 90 54 75 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 69.63 56 82 68 86 54 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 March 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 69.90 73 88 68 86 53 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 December 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 59.94 68 78 72 83 66 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 November 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 57.00 71 78 75 85 66 81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 48.38 92 88 82 70 59 95 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 March 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 45.92 87 77 82 68 61 88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 February 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 45.70 76 70 89 68 66 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 January 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 51.79 66 88 96 69 72 78 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 December 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 51.98 82 87 96 67 73 87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 November 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 52.12 80 86 100 61 78 86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 September 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 59.33 78 80 100 59 79 82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
08 August 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 58.38 84 67 100 58 79 81 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 59.83 83 53 100 55 84 74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
01 March 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 54.44 76 84 100 52 85 81 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
29 January 2024  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 54.42 80 82 100 52 86 83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
10 October 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 73.84 76 87 100 64 89 83 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 June 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 71.52 71 70 100 69 90 75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 May 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 73.82 82 71 100 72 90 82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
13 February 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 82.00 70 69 100 71 70 76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2023  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 85.96 84 82 100 69 69 88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 97.44 80 90 100 65 68 88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 September 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 81.52 88 95 100 64 68 94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
12 August 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 85.60 74 75 100 63 68 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
11 July 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 72.79 94 95 100 63 67 97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 June 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 88.58 88 89 100 61 68 91 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
05 May 2022  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite $ 90.28 79 87 100 65 73 86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 58.95 70 82 100 48 76 76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 June 2021 Mega Dump Lite $ 61.47 66 55 100 48 78 65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 December 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 50.08 61 84 100 54 81 72 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 November 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 47.27 74 91 100 58 86 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 July 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 39.76 73 80 100 61 81 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 42.25 67 66 100 60 83 71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 May 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 35.53 82 79 100 58 85 84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 April 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 35.44 93 96 100 60 83 96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2020 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.67 82 85 100 65 78 87 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 September 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.95 74 73 100 67 74 78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
09 August 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.94 82 84 100 67 70 87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 June 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 37.34 80 67 100 78 70 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 January 2019 Mega Dump Lite $ 42.00 81 80 100 74 76 86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 December 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.86 96 97 100 73 80 99 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2018 Mega Dump Lite $ 44.95 70 72 100 78 76 77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 December 2017 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.58 67 91 100 0 30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 November 2017 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.24 73 90 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 June 2017 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.02 63 48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 May 2017 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.30 54 44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 December 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 41.38 58 92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 November 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 38.85 75 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
29 June 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.41 77 92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
08 April 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.58 81 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 32.60 76 69 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 February 2016 Mega Dump Lite $ 30.42 89 94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 December 2015 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.92 67 92 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 November 2015 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.40 71 87 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Archer Daniels Midland Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: ADM) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:30. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 12 Aug 2026.