Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to ADM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 3.07%.   Win rate: 73.97%.   Sharpe Ratio: -6.606.   Maximum drawdown: -48.94% on 08 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 95.39%. Time in market: 15287 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1778.53 on 14 November 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Archer Daniels Midland

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 73 signal(s) occurring before 01 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (73.97% * 8.17%) + (15.07% * 0.63%) - (10.96% * 27.95%) = 3.07%.
Wins: 54 Breakevens: 11 Losses: 8

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Archer Daniels Midland Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Double Seven Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Double Seven entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
27 May 2026   cards_starLOW    factoryLOW   Double Seven $ 78.70 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
20 May 2026   cards_starLOW    factoryLOW   Double Seven $ 78.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
23 April 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 69.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
17 April 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 67.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 March 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 67.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 March 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 71.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
17 February 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 68.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 February 2026   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 69.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 January 2026   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 January 2026   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.21 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 December 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 December 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 57.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 November 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 56.53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 56.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 October 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.61 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 October 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 61.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 September 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 September 2025   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 62.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 August 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 54.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 July 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 54.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 July 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 53.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 June 2025   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 52.87 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 September 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 77.65 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 August 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 81.71 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 August 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 83.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 January 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 86.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 December 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 91.94 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 November 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 93.84 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 October 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 86.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
07 September 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 86.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
06 July 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 72.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 June 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 88.46 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
02 May 2022  bubble_chart   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 89.76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
29 March 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 88.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 February 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 77.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 February 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 76.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 January 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 68.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 January 2022   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 69.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 December 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 62.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 November 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 64.06 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 September 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 August 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 60.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 July 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 58.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 June 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 61.84 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
20 May 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 66.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
09 April 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 58.51 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 March 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 57.88 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
05 February 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 53.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 January 2021   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 50.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 November 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 49.98 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 October 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 51.43 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 September 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 46.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 August 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 43.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 August 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 44.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 March 2020   cards_starHIGH     Double Seven $ 33.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 42.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
21 January 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 44.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 December 2019   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 45.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 November 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 41.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
14 November 2019   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 41.73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
26 November 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 43.13 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 43.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 October 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 45.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 October 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 46.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 September 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 47.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 September 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 47.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 August 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 47.78 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 August 2018   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 46.45 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
17 July 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 44.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
13 July 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 44.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
15 June 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 42.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
11 June 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 42.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
14 May 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 41.10 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
08 May 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 40.73 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 April 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 41.20 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
06 April 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 41.11 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
09 March 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 40.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 March 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 40.11 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 February 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 38.17 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 January 2018   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 39.46 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 October 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 37.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 September 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 38.90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 May 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 41.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 March 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 40.98 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 February 2017   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 40.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 January 2017   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 39.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 December 2016   cards_starLOW     Double Seven $ 41.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 November 2016   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 38.61 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
17 October 2016   cards_starMEDIUM     Double Seven $ 37.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
13 September 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 37.57 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
12 August 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 38.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
11 July 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 38.21 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
07 June 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 38.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 May 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 33.65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 May 2016   LOW     Double Seven $ 33.99 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Archer Daniels Midland Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: ADM) was last updated 14 Jun 2026 16:17. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 08 Jun 2026.