Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ADM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 0.32%.   Win rate: 71.43%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.889.   Maximum drawdown: -44.71% on 08 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 43.61%. Time in market: 5602 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $826.36 on 12 January 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Archer Daniels Midland

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 21 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (71.43% * 8.31%) + (9.52% * 1.02%) - (19.05% * 29.97%) = 0.32%.
Wins: 15 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 4

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Archer Daniels Midland Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (54)    factoryLOW   50 Day Low $ 58.14 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 April 2025   smart_toyHIGH (90)    factoryLOW   sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 44.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 February 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)    factoryLOW   50 Day Low $ 48.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 December 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)    factoryLOW   50 Day Low $ 50.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 October 2024   smart_toyLOW (54)    factoryLOW   50 Day Low $ 58.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 August 2024   smart_toyLOW (75)     50 Day Low $ 58.09 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 January 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (51)     50 Day Low $ 70.00 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 October 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (78)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 70.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (60)     50 Day Low $ 77.35 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 May 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (67)     50 Day Low $ 74.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
16 March 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     50 Day Low $ 76.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
08 February 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (55)     50 Day Low $ 81.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
04 January 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     50 Day Low $ 87.90 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (92)     sirenFIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 82.44 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
07 July 2021   smart_toyLOW (54)     50 Day Low $ 59.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 February 2020   smart_toyLOW (57)     50 Day Low $ 42.35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
06 August 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     50 Day Low $ 36.47 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 May 2019   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     50 Day Low $ 37.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 April 2019   smart_toyLOW (64)     50 Day Low $ 39.45 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 December 2018   smart_toyLOW (71)     50 Day Low $ 42.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 October 2018   smart_toyLOW (66)     50 Day Low $ 45.95 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 October 2017   smart_toyLOW (53)     50 Day Low $ 37.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (57)     50 Day Low $ 37.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
02 May 2017   smart_toyLOW (60)     50 Day Low $ 38.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 September 2016   smart_toyLOW (64)     50 Day Low $ 37.07 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
13 January 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (89)     50 Day Low $ 29.37 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 November 2015   smart_toyLOW (68)     50 Day Low $ 33.85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Archer Daniels Midland Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: ADM) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 15 Jul 2026.