Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ADM's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.38%.   Win rate: 85.71%.   Sharpe Ratio: 0.032.   Maximum drawdown: -37.75% on 08 April 2025.
Mean CAGR: 57.52%. Time in market: 1137 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1407.52 on 20 January 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Archer Daniels Midland

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 7 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (85.71% * 8.24%) + (0% * 0%) - (14.29% * 4.83%) = 6.38%.
Wins: 6 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 1

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Archer Daniels Midland Analysis

Market sector: Industrials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
11 August 2026 Mega Dump Lite 64 62 65 89 46 73 schedule schedule schedule
27 July 2026 Gap Down 54 73 66 89 46 69 schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 70 60 68 90 54 75 schedule schedule schedule
23 June 2026 Double Seven 55 51 68 90 54 63 schedule schedule schedule
10 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 38 41 67 90 54 47 schedule schedule schedule
05 June 2026 Gap Down 52 71 66 89 53 67 schedule schedule schedule
29 May 2026 Oversold Rebound 54 78 66 89 53 70 schedule schedule schedule
27 May 2026 Double Seven 44 76 66 89 53 63 schedule schedule schedule
20 May 2026 Double Seven 45 90 68 90 54 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
24 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite 56 82 68 86 54 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 April 2025 52 Week Low $ 44.54 90 74 82 69 59 89 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 February 2025 52 Week Low $ 48.00 90 84 92 70 68 92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 December 2024 52 Week Low $ 50.48 85 95 96 67 73 92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
05 November 2024 52 Week Low $ 51.25 80 84 100 63 78 85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
17 January 2024  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 68.71 73 70 100 51 86 75 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 May 2023  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 71.25 75 74 100 71 90 79 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 March 2020 52 Week Low $ 35.03 96 83 100 63 81 93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 August 2019 52 Week Low $ 36.47 91 86 100 67 70 93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 May 2019 52 Week Low $ 37.96 83 65 100 82 69 83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 November 2017 52 Week Low $ 36.52 80 52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 July 2017 52 Week Low $ 36.72 71 57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Archer Daniels Midland Company (exchange: XNYS symbol: ADM) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:30. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 12 Aug 2026.