Upbound Group Inc (UPBD) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to UPBD's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 2.95%.   Win rate: 90.0%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.321.   Maximum drawdown: -56.27% on 19 November 2025.
Mean CAGR: 118.56%. Time in market: 1499 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $816.08 on 30 July 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Upbound Group

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 10 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (90.0% * 8.41%) + (0% * 0%) - (10.0% * 46.18%) = 2.95%.
Wins: 9 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Upbound Group Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
28 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite 50 71 100 83 74 65 schedule schedule schedule
24 July 2026 Gap Down 38 84 100 81 73 58 schedule schedule schedule
23 June 2026 Collapsed Bubble 54 61 100 77 72 64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 June 2026 Gap Down 50 55 100 77 72 59 schedule schedule schedule
09 June 2026 Collapsed Bubble 34 63 100 77 72 50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 49 76 100 77 72 64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 May 2026 Collapsed Bubble 40 71 100 77 72 56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite 47 80 100 77 72 64 schedule schedule schedule
19 May 2026 50 Day Low 34 86 100 72 69 54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 May 2026 Williams %R (Weekly) 35 87 100 74 69 56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
28 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 21.20 50 71 100 83 74 65 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
27 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 18.65 47 80 100 77 72 64 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 19.75 45 83 100 74 66 63 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 March 2026 Mega Dump Lite $ 18.23 59 81 100 74 66 72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 December 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 17.54 79 68 100 70 72 80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 November 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 16.20 76 62 100 64 69 76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 October 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 21.68 68 74 100 20 61 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
15 September 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 26.60 65 68 100 0 55 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 August 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 22.12 66 57 100 93 92 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 July 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 26.37 58 57 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 June 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 25.83 53 55 select_check_box schedule schedule schedule schedule
06 May 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 23.58 87 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
03 April 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 22.53 73 58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 March 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 25.32 71 61 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule
28 January 2025 Mega Dump Lite $ 29.85 53 79 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
26 December 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 29.86 70 89 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 November 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 29.76 68 77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
01 October 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 30.46 61 73 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
30 August 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 33.47 53 60 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 July 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 36.98 64 63 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
25 June 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.08 46 86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 May 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 30.73 50 46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 April 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.02 51 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 January 2024 Mega Dump Lite $ 32.56 74 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box disabled_by_default
10 November 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 28.61 57 88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 October 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 28.80 55 75 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 30.53 36 87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 August 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 34.50 50 76 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 June 2023 Mega Dump Lite $ 31.24 50 73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for Upbound Group Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: UPBD) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 15 Mar 2023 - 12 Aug 2026.