Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to ULTA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 8.27%.   Win rate: 90.74%.   Sharpe Ratio: -8.379.   Maximum drawdown: -60.87% on 18 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 152.49%. Time in market: 5684 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $8526.82 on 22 August 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ulta Beauty

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 54 signal(s) occurring before 23 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (90.74% * 8.96%) + (9.26% * 1.50%) - (0% * 0%) = 8.27%.
Wins: 49 Breakevens: 5 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ulta Beauty Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (36)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 467.96 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 May 2026   smart_toyLOW (35)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 495.16 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 April 2026   smart_toyLOW (55)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 523.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
11 March 2026   smart_toyLOW (33)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 649.47 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (61)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 518.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 April 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)    shopping_cartLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 387.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 March 2025   smart_toyLOW (74)    shopping_cartLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 362.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2025   smart_toyLOW (58)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 362.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 January 2025   smart_toyLOW (53)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 416.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 December 2024   smart_toyLOW (68)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 424.37 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2024   smart_toyLOW (71)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 363.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 October 2024   smart_toyLOW (56)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 369.95 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 September 2024   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 358.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (56)     Mega Dump Lite $ 367.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 May 2024   smart_toyLOW (46)     Mega Dump Lite $ 378.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
22 April 2024   smart_toyLOW (39)     Mega Dump Lite $ 417.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 March 2024   smart_toyLOW (51)     Mega Dump Lite $ 526.30 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 October 2023   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 376.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
19 September 2023   smart_toyLOW (48)     Mega Dump Lite $ 408.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2023   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 448.07 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 July 2023   smart_toyLOW (33)     Mega Dump Lite $ 472.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 June 2023   smart_toyLOW (34)     Mega Dump Lite $ 438.25 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 May 2023   smart_toyLOW (68)     Mega Dump Lite $ 513.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
22 December 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 453.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 November 2022   smart_toyLOW (76)     Mega Dump Lite $ 423.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 September 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 405.10 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 August 2022   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 405.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 July 2022   smart_toyLOW (78)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 397.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 June 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)     Mega Dump Lite $ 393.98 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     Mega Dump Lite $ 390.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 February 2022   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 368.34 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 December 2021   smart_toyLOW (46)     Mega Dump Lite $ 408.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 November 2021   smart_toyLOW (60)     Mega Dump Lite $ 404.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 October 2021   smart_toyLOW (65)     Mega Dump Lite $ 371.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
21 July 2021   smart_toyLOW (49)     Mega Dump Lite $ 338.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 April 2021   smart_toyLOW (52)     Mega Dump Lite $ 320.96 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 March 2021   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 320.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 December 2020   smart_toyLOW (70)     Mega Dump Lite $ 265.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 November 2020   smart_toyLOW (68)     Mega Dump Lite $ 272.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 October 2020   smart_toyLOW (64)     Mega Dump Lite $ 239.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 September 2020   smart_toyLOW (63)     Mega Dump Lite $ 236.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 August 2020   smart_toyLOW (49)     Mega Dump Lite $ 223.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 July 2020   smart_toyLOW (65)     Mega Dump Lite $ 195.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 246.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 May 2020   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 227.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (93)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 178.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2020   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 264.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 November 2019   smart_toyLOW (59)     Mega Dump Lite $ 244.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 October 2019   smart_toyLOW (74)     Mega Dump Lite $ 246.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 September 2019   smart_toyLOW (63)     Mega Dump Lite $ 228.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 August 2019   smart_toyLOW (68)     Mega Dump Lite $ 349.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 June 2019   smart_toyLOW (75)     Mega Dump Lite $ 332.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
15 January 2019   smart_toyLOW (77)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 276.73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 December 2018   smart_toyLOW (73)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 253.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 September 2018   smart_toyLOW (31)     Mega Dump Lite $ 286.51 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
07 August 2018   smart_toyLOW (24)     Mega Dump Lite $ 237.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 July 2018   smart_toyLOW (39)     Mega Dump Lite $ 240.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 April 2018   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 204.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 March 2018   smart_toyLOW (54)     Mega Dump Lite $ 196.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 January 2018   smart_toyLOW (50)     Mega Dump Lite $ 228.34 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 November 2017   smart_toyLOW (72)     Mega Dump Lite $ 212.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 October 2017   smart_toyLOW (59)     Mega Dump Lite $ 199.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2017   smart_toyLOW (71)     Mega Dump Lite $ 222.45 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 August 2017   smart_toyLOW (41)     Mega Dump Lite $ 254.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (52)     Mega Dump Lite $ 284.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 November 2016   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 237.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 October 2016   smart_toyLOW (71)     Mega Dump Lite $ 241.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 September 2016   smart_toyLOW (57)     Mega Dump Lite $ 248.23 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Ulta Beauty Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ULTA) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 09:10. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 30 Jun 2026.