Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to ULTA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.57%.   Win rate: 81.25%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.842.   Maximum drawdown: -59.98% on 18 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 117.35%. Time in market: 2909 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2054.69 on 13 August 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ulta Beauty

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 16 signal(s) occurring before 02 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (81.25% * 8.86%) + (18.75% * 1.97%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.57%.
Wins: 13 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ulta Beauty Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
03 June 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 474.96 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 March 2026   cards_starLOW    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 638.36 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 August 2025   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 509.79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 November 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 363.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 August 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 348.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 July 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 399.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 March 2024   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 519.99 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 August 2023   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 436.29 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 October 2022   cards_starHIGH     Gap Down $ 391.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 July 2022   cards_starMEDIUM     Gap Down $ 388.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 January 2022   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 409.06 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 November 2021   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 391.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
30 September 2021   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 369.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
09 June 2020   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 246.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 March 2020   cards_starHIGH     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 176.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2020   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 287.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 May 2019   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 341.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 February 2018   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 202.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 December 2017   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 210.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 October 2017   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 195.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 August 2017   cards_starLOW     Gap Down $ 243.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 August 2016   LOW     Gap Down $ 262.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default

 

The data for Ulta Beauty Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ULTA) was last updated 14 Jun 2026 16:17. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 09 Jun 2026.