Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ULTA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 9.12%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 4.877.   Maximum drawdown: -12.72% on 12 August 2024.
Mean CAGR: 161.44%. Time in market: 273 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1561.91 on 18 September 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Ulta Beauty

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 6 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 9.12%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 9.12%.
Wins: 6 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Ulta Beauty Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
10 August 2026 Gap Down 55 66 100 82 56 67 schedule schedule schedule
20 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite 38 63 100 82 59 54 schedule schedule schedule
17 June 2026 52 Week Low 41 55 100 82 61 53 schedule schedule schedule
17 June 2026 26 Week Low 54 55 100 82 61 62 schedule schedule schedule
17 June 2026 Super Oversold (26) 48 55 100 82 61 59 schedule schedule schedule
17 June 2026 50 Day Low 43 55 100 82 61 55 schedule schedule schedule
16 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 36 59 100 82 61 51 schedule schedule schedule
15 June 2026 Williams %R (Weekly) 36 57 100 82 61 50 schedule schedule schedule
09 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 41 66 100 82 61 57 schedule schedule schedule
03 June 2026 Gap Down 35 87 100 83 60 57 schedule schedule schedule

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
17 June 2026 52 Week Low $ 457.04 41 55 100 82 61 53 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
25 July 2024 52 Week Low $ 367.65 44 60 100 68 76 56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2023 52 Week Low $ 381.22 53 85 100 79 84 70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 March 2020 52 Week Low $ 198.73 99 93 100 75 69 100 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 September 2019 52 Week Low $ 228.46 55 78 100 95 55 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 October 2017 52 Week Low $ 195.84 85 42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 August 2017 52 Week Low $ 213.90 87 75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for Ulta Beauty Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ULTA) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 12 Aug 2026.