Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to TXRH's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 9.16%.   Win rate: 95.00%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.033.   Maximum drawdown: -41.91% on 18 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 148.2%. Time in market: 1696 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2950.39 on 07 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Texas Roadhouse

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 20 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (95.00% * 9.60%) + (5.00% * 0.95%) - (0% * 0%) = 9.16%.
Wins: 19 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Texas Roadhouse Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 April 2026  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.626  factory0.374   50 Day Low $ 159.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
18 March 2026  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.723  factory0.622   50 Day Low $ 169.04 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
08 September 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.88  factory0.569   50 Day Low $ 168.00 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
05 August 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.836  factory0.574   50 Day Low $ 182.77 select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule schedule
19 March 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.888  factory0.741   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 168.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 February 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.756  factory0.646   50 Day Low $ 171.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 January 2025  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.919  factory0.706   50 Day Low $ 178.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
10 September 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.862  factory0.63   50 Day Low $ 160.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 July 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.798  factory0.692   50 Day Low $ 165.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 September 2023  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.742  factory0.683   50 Day Low $ 100.10 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
14 August 2023  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.787  factory0.64   50 Day Low $ 106.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 December 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.686  factory0.845   50 Day Low $ 93.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.978  factory0.922   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 71.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 March 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.981  factory0.602   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 77.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 January 2022  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.889  factory0.535   50 Day Low $ 80.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 November 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.666  factory0.697   50 Day Low $ 85.05 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
20 October 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.94  factory0.671   50 Day Low $ 87.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 August 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.781  factory0.564   50 Day Low $ 88.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
16 June 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.857  factory0.513   50 Day Low $ 95.35 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 March 2020   LOW   smart_toy0.841  factory0.764   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 53.95 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 October 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.844  factory0.62   50 Day Low $ 48.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 August 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.813  factory0.816   50 Day Low $ 50.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 April 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.424  factory0.562   50 Day Low $ 53.24 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
20 December 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.956  factory0.925   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 58.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
30 October 2018   LOW   smart_toy0.801  factory0.888   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 59.77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
06 September 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.908  factory0.508   50 Day Low $ 43.39 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 July 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.823  factory0.412   50 Day Low $ 45.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 February 2017   LOW   smart_toy0.704  factory0.588   50 Day Low $ 39.65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 September 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.707  factory0.567   50 Day Low $ 38.57 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Texas Roadhouse Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: TXRH) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Jun 2016 - 29 May 2026.