Tesla Inc (TSLA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results laptop_car

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to TSLA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 10.30%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.779.   Maximum drawdown: -56.52% on 06 January 2023.
Mean CAGR: 146.88%. Time in market: 2358 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $3874.25 on 03 July 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Tesla

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 26 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 10.30%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 10.30%.
Wins: 26 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Tesla Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
06 April 2026   LOW   smart_toy0.895  factory0.523   50 Day Low $ 357.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 March 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.782  factory0.33   50 Day Low $ 396.96 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
18 March 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.974  factory0.68   50 Day Low $ 226.73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 February 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.74  factory0.655   50 Day Low $ 337.15 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
16 April 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.941  factory0.518   50 Day Low $ 156.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 March 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.918  factory0.842   50 Day Low $ 178.26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 January 2024  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.812  factory0.827   50 Day Low $ 211.09 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 October 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.861  factory0.804   50 Day Low $ 214.50 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.875  factory0.75   50 Day Low $ 214.80 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 April 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.911  factory0.437   50 Day Low $ 164.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 December 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.938  factory0.719   50 Day Low $ 167.91 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.948  factory0.737   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 202.86 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
03 October 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.996  factory0.729   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 248.45 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.988  factory0.901   50 Day Low $ 254.83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 January 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.902  factory0.567   50 Day Low $ 293.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 May 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.739  factory0.493   50 Day Low $ 192.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2021  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.647  factory0.514   50 Day Low $ 212.87 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 March 2020  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.976  factory0.714   50 Day Low $ 29.01 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 May 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.99  factory0.834   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 12.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 April 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.881  factory0.643   50 Day Low $ 16.75 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 March 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.907  factory0.745   50 Day Low $ 18.62 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
22 January 2019   LOW   smart_toy0.925  factory0.82   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 20.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
08 October 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.96  factory0.765   50 Day Low $ 17.17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 September 2018   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.95  factory0.767   50 Day Low $ 19.53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 March 2018  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.909  factory0.682   50 Day Low $ 20.85 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
24 October 2017  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.975  factory0.557   50 Day Low $ 22.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 December 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.868  factory0.78   50 Day Low $ 12.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 October 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.945  factory0.837   50 Day Low $ 13.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 September 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.932  factory0.651   50 Day Low $ 13.23 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 June 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.664  factory0.684   50 Day Low $ 13.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Tesla Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: TSLA) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 29 May 2026.