Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (SWBI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to SWBI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 1.38%.   Win rate: 64.29%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.083.   Maximum drawdown: -62.99% on 20 December 2022.
Mean CAGR: 155.14%. Time in market: 3463 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $836.61 on 21 May 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Smith & Wesson Brands

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 14 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (64.29% * 9.29%) + (14.29% * 4.80%) - (21.43% * 24.65%) = 1.38%.
Wins: 9 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 3

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Smith & Wesson Brands Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
16 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (72)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 14.10 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (71)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 8.46 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
31 July 2025   smart_toyLOW (53)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 7.93 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 June 2025   smart_toyLOW (52)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 8.65 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 March 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (82)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 9.62 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
06 December 2024   smart_toyLOW (69)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 11.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 September 2024   smart_toyLOW (68)    shopping_cartLOW   50 Day Low $ 13.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 June 2024   smart_toyLOW (51)     50 Day Low $ 15.00 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
20 May 2024   smart_toyLOW (63)     50 Day Low $ 16.08 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
08 December 2023   smart_toyLOW (58)     50 Day Low $ 12.75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 September 2023   smart_toyLOW (33)     50 Day Low $ 11.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 June 2023   smart_toyLOW (68)     50 Day Low $ 11.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 December 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94)     50 Day Low $ 10.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (93)     50 Day Low $ 12.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94)     50 Day Low $ 13.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94)     50 Day Low $ 13.67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 April 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (62)     50 Day Low $ 14.82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 February 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (78)     50 Day Low $ 16.09 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
21 January 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (68)     50 Day Low $ 16.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
03 December 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (68)     50 Day Low $ 17.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
02 September 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (59)     50 Day Low $ 22.64 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for Smith & Wesson Brands Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: SWBI) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this stock is available from 19 Feb 2021 - 15 Jul 2026.