Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results laptop_car

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to MSFT's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.34%.   Win rate: 77.78%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.204.   Maximum drawdown: -30.80% on 03 November 2022.
Mean CAGR: 48.61%. Time in market: 1278 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1364.52 on 07 February 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Microsoft

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 9 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (77.78% * 8.08%) + (22.22% * 0.26%) - (0% * 0%) = 6.34%.
Wins: 7 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Microsoft Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
31 July 2026 Double Bottom 86 81 100 92 76 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
31 July 2026 Gap Up 54 81 100 92 76 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 July 2026 Mega Dump Lite 38 84 100 92 78 58 schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026 Rate of Change 86 86 100 92 79 93 schedule schedule schedule
26 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 54 74 100 92 79 68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
25 June 2026 52 Week Low 95 85 100 92 79 97 schedule schedule schedule
25 June 2026 Williams %R (Weekly) 43 74 100 92 79 60 schedule schedule schedule
25 June 2026 26 Week Low 91 85 100 92 79 95 schedule schedule schedule
22 June 2026 50 Day Low 54 71 100 92 79 67 schedule schedule schedule
16 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 41 75 100 92 79 59 schedule schedule schedule

Double Bottom Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Double Bottom entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
31 July 2026 Double Bottom $ 457.36 86 81 100 92 76 91 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
23 January 2025 Double Bottom $ 444.36 83 90 100 80 84 90 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 November 2022 Double Bottom $ 245.05 83 92 100 92 91 92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 June 2022 Double Bottom $ 266.55 84 90 100 89 91 92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
27 June 2022 Double Bottom $ 266.55 84 90 100 89 91 92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
30 March 2022 Double Bottom $ 313.81 49 93 100 98 94 70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 March 2022 Double Bottom $ 313.81 49 93 100 98 94 70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 November 2020 Double Bottom $ 222.08 98 94 100 90 97 100 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 March 2018 Double Bottom $ 89.23 75 94 100 94 97 87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 March 2018 Double Bottom $ 89.23 75 94 100 94 97 87 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 February 2016 Double Bottom $ 47.81 77 93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Microsoft Corporation (exchange: XNAS symbol: MSFT) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 12 Aug 2026.