Moderna Inc (MRNA) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Simple Mean Reversion Simple Mean Reversion (RoC) Gap Up Rate of Change
Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB/OR
Collapsed Bubble Collapsed Bubble (RoC) Oversold Rebound Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to MRNA's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: On Off Scores: All Low Medium High Very High Market sector score: All Low High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 0.23%. Win rate: 85.19%. Sharpe Ratio: -0.769. Maximum drawdown: -81.65% on 02 November 2023.
Mean CAGR: 188.41%. Time in market: 3817 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $195.64 on 06 July 2026.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Moderna Inc

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 27 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (85.19% * 10.93%) + (0% * 0%) - (14.81% * 61.28%) = 0.23%.
Wins: 23 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Moderna Inc Analysis

Market sector: Biotech.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date	Signal Type	Scores						Performance
		Signal	Sector	WR	Speed	Risk	Overall	5%	6%	7.5%
10 August 2026 bubble_chart	Mega Dump Lite	71	74	85	92	29	81	schedule	schedule	schedule
30 July 2026 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	85	64	85	92	29	86	schedule	schedule	schedule
29 July 2026 bubble_chart	Super Oversold (CB)	88	77	85	92	29	93	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 July 2026 bubble_chart	Super Oversold (GD)	92	65	85	91	34	90	schedule	schedule	schedule
08 July 2026 bubble_chart	Gap Down	78	80	86	91	36	88	schedule	schedule	schedule
07 July 2026 bubble_chart	Mega Dump Lite	85	83	86	91	36	92	schedule	schedule	schedule
29 June 2026 bubble_chart	Collapsed Bubble	91	77	88	90	38	94	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 June 2026 bubble_chart	Collapsed Bubble	85	67	88	90	38	87	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 June 2026 bubble_chart	Double Seven	87	69	88	90	38	88	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 June 2026 bubble_chart	Oversold Rebound	61	66	88	90	38	72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

Mega Dump Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Mega Dump entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date	Buy Signal	Price	Scores						Performance (mouseover for details)
			Signal	Sector	WR	Speed	Risk	Overall	5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
30 July 2026 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 56.90	85	64	85	92	29	86	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
17 February 2026 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 43.10	78	65	88	87	50	81	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 September 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 24.39	88	84	88	78	44	93	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 August 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 26.39	95	72	88	82	45	93	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 25.54	95	66	89	90	56	91	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 April 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 25.34	96	93	89	86	61	100	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 February 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 30.87	87	67	91	85	64	86	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
27 January 2025 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 41.26	77	89	91	86	64	88	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
24 December 2024 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 39.93	95	94	91	84	65	100	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
22 November 2024 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 39.78	85	90	91	87	65	93	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
10 September 2024 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 77.70	97	86	91	84	68	98	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
08 August 2024 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 83.41	87	81	91	84	68	91	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
05 July 2024 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 117.81	94	86	91	87	68	97	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
05 December 2023	Mega Dump	$ 78.29	90	93	97	83	81	96	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 November 2023	Mega Dump	$ 75.71	82	87	97	83	84	89	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 August 2023	Mega Dump	$ 102.62	79	78	100	88	89	85	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 March 2023	Mega Dump	$ 140.94	82	83	100	85	66	89	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
04 October 2022 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 124.67	95	95	100	82	67	100	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 September 2022 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 139.46	69	91	100	83	69	82	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 March 2022 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 130.79	85	82	100	75	62	89	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 February 2022 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 173.97	91	83	100	73	62	93	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
31 December 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 251.93	94	86	100	66	58	95	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
29 November 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 369.42	98	87	100	72	58	98	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
25 October 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 338.46	88	92	100	74	57	95	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
21 September 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 429.17	90	83	100	74	55	93	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
18 August 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 402.65	91	82	100	70	52	93	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default
13 April 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 148.26	81	64	100	100	92	82	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
11 March 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 136.73	85	68	100	100	98	86	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 January 2021 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 113.68	85	62					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 August 2020 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 74.24	95	90					select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 July 2020 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 58.85	78	89					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 June 2020 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 62.47	74	85					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 March 2020 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 30.54	97	94					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 February 2020	Mega Dump	$ 22.96	96	93					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 October 2019 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 14.21	97	92					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 July 2019 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 14.56	94	80					select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 May 2019 bubble_chart	Mega Dump	$ 21.70	59	89					select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
01 February 2019	Mega Dump	$ 16.51	93	88					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
31 December 2018	Mega Dump	$ 14.76	98	96					select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

The data for Moderna Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: MRNA) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 07 Dec 2018 - 12 Aug 2026.