Morningstar Inc (MORN) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to MORN's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 5.03%.   Win rate: 71.43%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.838.   Maximum drawdown: -46.72% on 28 April 2023.
Mean CAGR: 68.84%. Time in market: 3192 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1465.98 on 27 July 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Morningstar

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 14 signal(s) occurring before 16 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (71.43% * 8.50%) + (21.43% * 0.50%) - (7.14% * 16.09%) = 5.03%.
Wins: 10 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Morningstar Analysis

Market sector: Financials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
23 April 2026   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 180.86 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 February 2026   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 187.82 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 October 2025   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 212.20 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 September 2025   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 251.88 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
25 April 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 291.72 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 April 2023   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 201.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 October 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 217.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
19 August 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 248.03 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 June 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 249.51 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
23 March 2022   HIGH   Gap Down $ 273.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 January 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 329.06 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 June 2020   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 145.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
27 February 2020   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 147.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 October 2019   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 143.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
29 October 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 123.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
17 September 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 132.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 October 2017   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 82.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 April 2017   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 75.12 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
21 October 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 70.99 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for Morningstar Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: MORN) was last updated 24 Apr 2026 07:52. Data for this stock is available from 01 Mar 2016 - 23 Apr 2026.