iShares MSCI China (MCHI) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results globe

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to MCHI's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Threshold:           [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 2.24%.   Win rate: 83.33%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.24.   Maximum drawdown: -38.54% on 31 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 114.3%. Time in market: 1072 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $794.94 on 02 May 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for China

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 6 signal(s) occurring before 10 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (83.33% * 8.98%) + (0% * 0%) - (16.67% * 31.46%) = 2.24%.
Wins: 5 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

52 week low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
17 June 2026   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 53.34 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
08 January 2024   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 38.80 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 December 2023   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 40.81 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 October 2022   cards_starMEDIUM     sirenFIRE SALE 52 Week Low $ 36.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 September 2022   cards_starHIGH     sirenFIRE SALE 52 Week Low $ 43.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 February 2022   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 57.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
05 January 2022   LOW     52 Week Low $ 60.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for iShares MSCI China (exchange: XNAS symbol: MCHI) was last updated 18 Jun 2026 04:06. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 17 Jun 2026.