LKQ Corp (LKQ) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to LKQ's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -2.61%.   Win rate: 78.57%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.826.   Maximum drawdown: -60.95% on 23 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 81.32%. Time in market: 2918 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $506.35 on 28 July 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for LKQ Corp

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 14 signal(s) occurring before 18 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (78.57% * 8.70%) + (0% * 0%) - (21.43% * 44.05%) = -2.61%.
Wins: 11 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 3

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

LKQ Corp Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
17 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (43)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 25.58 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 May 2026   smart_toyLOW (36)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 27.48 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
17 February 2026   smart_toyLOW (32)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 33.24 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 July 2025   smart_toyLOW (45)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down $ 32.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule
07 April 2025   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)    shopping_cartHIGH   Gap Down $ 40.11 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
25 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (48)     Gap Down $ 39.73 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box schedule
23 April 2024   smart_toyLOW (46)     Gap Down $ 43.90 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2023   smart_toyLOW (35)     Gap Down $ 55.71 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 November 2022   smart_toyLOW (63)     Gap Down $ 53.59 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 March 2021   smart_toyLOW (28)     Gap Down $ 41.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 September 2020   smart_toyLOW (62)     Gap Down $ 32.45 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (60)     Gap Down $ 28.74 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 May 2020   smart_toyLOW (68)     Gap Down $ 24.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 April 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 19.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
25 April 2019   smart_toyLOW (38)     Gap Down $ 30.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
26 April 2018   smart_toyLOW (71)     Gap Down $ 31.71 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
22 March 2018   smart_toyLOW (31)     Gap Down $ 38.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 February 2017   smart_toyLOW (43)     Gap Down $ 31.79 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
27 October 2016   smart_toyLOW (60)     Gap Down $ 31.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     Gap Down $ 31.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for LKQ Corp (exchange: XNAS symbol: LKQ) was last updated 26 Jun 2026 05:21. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 25 Jun 2026.