National Beverage Corp (FIZZ) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to FIZZ's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.95%.   Win rate: 82.14%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.86.   Maximum drawdown: -61.35% on 16 March 2020.
Mean CAGR: 95.84%. Time in market: 4527 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2521.99 on 17 June 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for National Beverage

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 28 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (82.14% * 9.22%) + (14.29% * 0.84%) - (3.57% * 20.74%) = 6.95%.
Wins: 23 Breakevens: 4 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

National Beverage Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Staples.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
22 April 2026  bubble_chart   LOW   smart_toy0.788  factory0.365   50 Day Low $ 33.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
19 December 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.872  factory0.756   50 Day Low $ 32.38 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
17 November 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.725  factory0.803   50 Day Low $ 32.85 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
13 October 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.703  factory0.62   50 Day Low $ 36.62 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
27 August 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.719  factory0.511   50 Day Low $ 42.32 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
27 June 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.729  factory0.436   50 Day Low $ 42.63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
24 January 2025  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.774  factory0.65   50 Day Low $ 42.03 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
23 December 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.537  factory0.724   50 Day Low $ 44.84 select_check_box select_check_box schedule schedule schedule
09 September 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.63  factory0.639   50 Day Low $ 44.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
16 April 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.628  factory0.451   50 Day Low $ 45.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
24 January 2024  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.631  factory0.683   50 Day Low $ 47.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
12 October 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.875  factory0.842   50 Day Low $ 45.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
05 September 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.868  factory0.614   50 Day Low $ 47.51 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
01 June 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.938  factory0.705   50 Day Low $ 49.02 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
18 January 2023  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.547  factory0.676   50 Day Low $ 44.05 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 September 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.79  factory0.87   50 Day Low $ 47.54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
23 February 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.776  factory0.696   50 Day Low $ 41.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 January 2022  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.841  factory0.578   50 Day Low $ 45.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 December 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.676  factory0.739   50 Day Low $ 51.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 August 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.688  factory0.566   50 Day Low $ 43.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
14 July 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.637  factory0.595   50 Day Low $ 44.18 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 May 2021  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.659  factory0.438   50 Day Low $ 47.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
12 March 2020   HIGH   smart_toy0.978  factory0.864   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 19.52 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
03 February 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.741  factory0.665   50 Day Low $ 21.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 August 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.73  factory0.939   50 Day Low $ 20.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 July 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.954  factory0.947   50 Day Low $ 20.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 June 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.997  factory0.944   50 Day Low $ 22.31 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 May 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.971  factory0.956   50 Day Low $ 26.37 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 April 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.713  factory0.852   50 Day Low $ 28.32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 February 2019  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.735  factory0.819   50 Day Low $ 35.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 December 2018  bubble_chart   HIGH   smart_toy0.923  factory0.939   50 Day Low $ 38.58 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
14 November 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.866  factory0.871   50 Day Low $ 44.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 October 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.63  factory0.584   50 Day Low $ 49.58 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 March 2018  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.835  factory0.564   50 Day Low $ 45.81 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2017  bubble_chart   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.767  factory0.58   50 Day Low $ 51.21 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box disabled_by_default
27 September 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.557  factory0.533   50 Day Low $ 21.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 August 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.786  factory0.507   50 Day Low $ 24.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for National Beverage Corp (exchange: XNAS symbol: FIZZ) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 29 May 2026.