Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to DLTR's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.52%.   Win rate: 82.69%.   Sharpe Ratio: -4.89.   Maximum drawdown: -59.23% on 11 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 116.66%. Time in market: 8094 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2752.55 on 12 December 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Dollar Tree

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 52 signal(s) occurring before 23 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (82.69% * 9.08%) + (13.46% * 0.49%) - (3.85% * 27.36%) = 6.52%.
Wins: 43 Breakevens: 7 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Dollar Tree Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

MegaDump Lite Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each MegaDump Lite entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
15 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (34)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 113.67 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
12 May 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 89.58 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 April 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 103.18 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
09 March 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (61)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 115.18 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 February 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (47)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 118.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
29 December 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 123.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
14 October 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 94.10 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 September 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (51)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 98.20 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 April 2025   smart_toyHIGH (93)    shopping_cartHIGH   sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 72.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 March 2025   smart_toyLOW (76)    shopping_cartLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 68.58 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 January 2025   smart_toyLOW (65)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 75.52 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 December 2024   smart_toyLOW (74)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 72.30 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
01 November 2024   smart_toyLOW (72)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 65.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
30 September 2024   smart_toyLOW (79)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 71.55 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
27 August 2024   smart_toyLOW (47)    shopping_cartLOW   Mega Dump Lite $ 95.89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
26 July 2024   smart_toyLOW (55)     Mega Dump Lite $ 103.39 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
24 June 2024   smart_toyLOW (53)     Mega Dump Lite $ 107.18 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
21 May 2024   smart_toyLOW (50)     Mega Dump Lite $ 114.96 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 April 2024   smart_toyLOW (50)     Mega Dump Lite $ 121.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 March 2024   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 127.83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 January 2024   smart_toyLOW (58)     Mega Dump Lite $ 132.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 November 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (50)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 115.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 October 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (56)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 104.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
30 August 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (39)     Mega Dump Lite $ 123.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 July 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 146.46 select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 May 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (49)     Mega Dump Lite $ 136.64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
31 March 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (70)     Mega Dump Lite $ 142.66 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
28 February 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (65)     Mega Dump Lite $ 144.49 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
04 January 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     Mega Dump Lite $ 140.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
02 December 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (62)     Mega Dump Lite $ 150.12 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 October 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 141.82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (91)     Mega Dump Lite $ 138.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 150.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
16 May 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (76)     Mega Dump Lite $ 160.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
28 February 2022   smart_toyLOW (52)     Mega Dump Lite $ 141.39 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 January 2022   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 130.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 December 2021   smart_toyLOW (64)     Mega Dump Lite $ 136.08 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 October 2021   smart_toyLOW (58)     Mega Dump Lite $ 97.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 September 2021   smart_toyLOW (52)     Mega Dump Lite $ 91.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 July 2021   smart_toyLOW (49)     Mega Dump Lite $ 99.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 June 2021   smart_toyLOW (45)     Mega Dump Lite $ 99.30 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 March 2021   smart_toyLOW (44)     Mega Dump Lite $ 106.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 February 2021   smart_toyLOW (43)     Mega Dump Lite $ 102.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 October 2020   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 96.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
11 September 2020   smart_toyLOW (64)     Mega Dump Lite $ 90.27 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 July 2020   smart_toyLOW (49)     Mega Dump Lite $ 97.15 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (60)     Mega Dump Lite $ 91.06 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 May 2020   smart_toyLOW (66)     Mega Dump Lite $ 75.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 April 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (87)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 76.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (93)     sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump Lite $ 86.57 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 December 2019   smart_toyLOW (38)     Mega Dump Lite $ 93.26 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
15 November 2019   smart_toyLOW (45)     Mega Dump Lite $ 109.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 September 2019   smart_toyLOW (53)     Mega Dump Lite $ 110.83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 August 2019   smart_toyLOW (72)     Mega Dump Lite $ 92.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
18 June 2019   smart_toyLOW (59)     Mega Dump Lite $ 109.36 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 May 2019   smart_toyLOW (48)     Mega Dump Lite $ 100.43 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
09 October 2018   smart_toyLOW (50)     Mega Dump Lite $ 83.23 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 September 2018   smart_toyLOW (29)     Mega Dump Lite $ 82.52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 July 2018   smart_toyLOW (24)     Mega Dump Lite $ 85.33 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 June 2018   smart_toyLOW (36)     Mega Dump Lite $ 82.41 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 April 2018   smart_toyLOW (32)     Mega Dump Lite $ 99.53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
19 March 2018   smart_toyLOW (41)     Mega Dump Lite $ 94.94 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
13 February 2018   smart_toyLOW (43)     Mega Dump Lite $ 104.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
31 July 2017   smart_toyLOW (47)     Mega Dump Lite $ 72.04 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (61)     Mega Dump Lite $ 68.76 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 February 2017   smart_toyLOW (66)     Mega Dump Lite $ 74.86 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 January 2017   smart_toyLOW (69)     Mega Dump Lite $ 78.48 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 October 2016   smart_toyLOW (60)     Mega Dump Lite $ 78.00 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 September 2016   smart_toyLOW (53)     Mega Dump Lite $ 83.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Dollar Tree Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: DLTR) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 09:10. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 30 Jun 2026.