Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to DLTR's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 9.39%.   Win rate: 88.89%.   Sharpe Ratio: 2.079.   Maximum drawdown: -40.84% on 11 November 2024.
Mean CAGR: 128.46%. Time in market: 864 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1811.37 on 11 July 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Dollar Tree

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 9 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (88.89% * 9.91%) + (11.11% * 5.23%) - (0% * 0%) = 9.39%.
Wins: 8 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Dollar Tree Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Scores Performance
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5%
23 July 2026 Gap Down 41 59 100 91 64 55 schedule schedule schedule
29 June 2026 Oversold Rebound 54 57 100 90 67 63 schedule schedule schedule
17 June 2026 Gap Down 49 55 100 91 72 59 schedule schedule schedule
15 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite 34 57 100 91 72 50 schedule schedule schedule
29 May 2026 Gap Up 54 83 100 91 73 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 May 2026  bubble_chart Super Oversold (26) 51 86 100 88 78 69 schedule schedule schedule
12 May 2026  bubble_chart 50 Day Low 40 86 100 88 78 61 schedule schedule schedule
12 May 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite 45 86 100 88 78 64 schedule schedule schedule
11 May 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down 36 86 100 88 78 57 schedule schedule schedule
29 April 2026  bubble_chart 26 Week Low 63 77 100 88 78 75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 October 2024 52 Week Low $ 65.06 83 70 100 70 81 83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 August 2024 52 Week Low $ 93.02 78 78 100 69 83 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
10 July 2024 52 Week Low $ 103.46 34 79 100 76 84 53 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 October 2023  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 104.08 69 70 100 74 90 75 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2023  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 127.44 44 71 100 79 90 59 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
01 June 2023  bubble_chart 52 Week Low $ 131.28 40 66 100 78 91 55 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
22 September 2021 52 Week Low $ 85.96 67 81 100 81 81 78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
27 February 2020 52 Week Low $ 86.03 78 84 100 85 81 86 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 January 2020 52 Week Low $ 88.57 49 46 100 84 81 56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 September 2018 52 Week Low $ 80.22 53 77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 June 2017 52 Week Low $ 69.87 65 54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Dollar Tree Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: DLTR) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 08:56. Data for this stock is available from 01 Apr 2016 - 12 Aug 2026.