Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to COST's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 7.82%.   Win rate: 100%.   Sharpe Ratio: 18.283.   Maximum drawdown: -14.88% on 20 May 2022.
Mean CAGR: 109.68%. Time in market: 721 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1974.85 on 24 January 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Costco

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 11 signal(s) occurring before 23 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (100% * 7.82%) + (0% * 0%) - (0% * 0%) = 7.82%.
Wins: 11 Breakevens: 0 Losses: 0

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Costco Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Staples.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Williams %R (Weekly) Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Williams %R (Weekly) entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (39)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 938.74 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 May 2026   smart_toyLOW (44)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 970.90 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
22 December 2025   smart_toyLOW (62)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 852.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (67)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 903.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
26 September 2025   smart_toyLOW (58)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 920.75 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
23 July 2025   smart_toyLOW (58)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   Williams %R (Weekly) $ 941.78 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box schedule
13 March 2025   smart_toyLOW (46)    emoji_food_beverageLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 906.31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
28 December 2022   smart_toyLOW (74)     sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 455.26 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 October 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (83)     sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 473.20 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 May 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 496.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
22 February 2021   smart_toyLOW (52)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 351.48 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
19 January 2021   smart_toyLOW (45)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 358.41 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 February 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (84)     sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 282.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
14 December 2018   smart_toyLOW (67)     sirenFIRE SALE Williams %R (Weekly) $ 209.54 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (59)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 153.50 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
31 October 2016   smart_toyLOW (61)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 137.11 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 September 2016   smart_toyLOW (35)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 139.50 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 May 2016   smart_toyLOW (61)     Williams %R (Weekly) $ 129.70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt

 

The data for Costco Wholesale Corp (exchange: XNAS symbol: COST) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 09:10. Data for this stock is available from 01 Dec 2015 - 30 Jun 2026.