Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results crown

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to CBSH's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 5.39%.   Win rate: 76.92%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.023.   Maximum drawdown: -40.23% on 25 May 2023.
Mean CAGR: 109.11%. Time in market: 4317 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1525.98 on 27 November 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Commerce Bancshares

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 26 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (76.92% * 8.69%) + (19.23% * 0.54%) - (3.85% * 36.29%) = 5.39%.
Wins: 20 Breakevens: 5 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Commerce Bancshares Analysis

Market sector: Financials.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
24 February 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.753  factory0.678   50 Day Low $ 52.22 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
18 November 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.685  factory0.793   50 Day Low $ 51.70 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
16 October 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.62  factory0.812   50 Day Low $ 54.04 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
10 September 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.748  factory0.754   50 Day Low $ 60.02 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
01 August 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.718  factory0.71   50 Day Low $ 60.20 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
10 March 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.935  factory0.851   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 61.20 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
10 January 2025   HIGH   smart_toy0.915  factory0.763   50 Day Low $ 61.54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
30 September 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.77  factory0.707   50 Day Low $ 59.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 October 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.942  factory0.898   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 43.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
11 September 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.86  factory0.787   50 Day Low $ 44.63 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.961  factory0.79   50 Day Low $ 44.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
16 May 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.904  factory0.804   50 Day Low $ 45.47 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 April 2023   HIGH   smart_toy0.818  factory0.846   50 Day Low $ 56.16 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
07 March 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.573  factory0.933   50 Day Low $ 64.38 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 December 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.614  factory0.913   50 Day Low $ 66.58 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
28 September 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.979  factory0.938   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 66.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
13 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.767  factory0.929   50 Day Low $ 64.80 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
10 May 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.941  factory0.901   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 68.43 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 December 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.476  factory0.83   50 Day Low $ 65.73 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
14 September 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.726  factory0.623   50 Day Low $ 67.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
19 July 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.493  factory0.697   50 Day Low $ 71.20 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 June 2021   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.759  factory0.563   50 Day Low $ 75.18 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.795  factory0.831   50 Day Low $ 54.42 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
01 April 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.991  factory0.925   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 48.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 February 2020   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.86  factory0.862   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 64.77 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
05 August 2019   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.792  factory0.773   50 Day Low $ 53.28 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 March 2019   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.631  factory0.836   50 Day Low $ 53.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
19 December 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.937  factory0.947   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 52.26 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
27 September 2018   HIGH   smart_toy0.645  factory0.765   50 Day Low $ 58.60 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
18 August 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.821  factory0.701   50 Day Low $ 44.67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 May 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.76  factory0.824   50 Day Low $ 43.74 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
23 March 2017   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.723  factory0.722   50 Day Low $ 44.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
27 June 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.869  factory0.912   50 Day Low $ 34.57 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 January 2016   LOW   smart_toy0.992  factory0.907   50 Day Low $ 31.42 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Commerce Bancshares Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: CBSH) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this stock is available from 01 Sep 2015 - 29 May 2026.