Adobe Inc (ADBE) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to ADBE's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.70%.   Win rate: 93.10%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.373.   Maximum drawdown: -55.62% on 30 September 2022.
Mean CAGR: 125.2%. Time in market: 3511 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2359.49 on 15 December 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Adobe

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 29 signal(s) occurring before 22 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (93.10% * 8.65%) + (3.45% * 0.74%) - (3.45% * 40.24%) = 6.70%.
Wins: 27 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Adobe Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Score Performance
5% 6% 7.5%
28 July 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump   smart_toyMEDIUM (86)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
20 July 2026  bubble_chart Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (48)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
14 July 2026  bubble_chart Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (45)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
07 July 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (65)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
06 July 2026  bubble_chart Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (68)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 June 2026  bubble_chart Simple Mean Reversion (RoC)   smart_toyMEDIUM (81)    computerLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 June 2026  bubble_chart Rate of Change   smart_toyHIGH (90)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
25 June 2026  bubble_chart Super Oversold (52)   smart_toyLOW (71)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
25 June 2026  bubble_chart Super Oversold (GD)   smart_toyLOW (76)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule
24 June 2026  bubble_chart Mega Dump   smart_toyLOW (73)    computerLOW   schedule schedule schedule

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
14 July 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 220.97 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (36)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 265.04 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
23 April 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (29)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 241.93 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
13 March 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (50)    computerLOW   sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 249.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
03 February 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (50)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 277.34 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 January 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (61)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 341.99 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 October 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (67)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 346.69 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 June 2025  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (29)    computerLOW   Gap Down $ 392.09 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 November 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (60)     Gap Down $ 511.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
13 September 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (73)     Gap Down $ 534.72 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 May 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (29)     Gap Down $ 455.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 March 2024  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Down $ 496.05 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
14 December 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (52)     Gap Down $ 588.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 September 2023  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (36)     Gap Down $ 548.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 May 2023   smart_toyLOW (68)     Gap Down $ 354.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (75)     Gap Down $ 310.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 September 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (71)     Gap Down $ 375.47 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 June 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (64)     Gap Down $ 403.37 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
14 December 2021  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (46)     Gap Down $ 625.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 November 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (76)     Gap Down $ 482.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
02 October 2020  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (68)     Gap Down $ 483.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Down $ 393.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 April 2020   smart_toyLOW (65)     Gap Down $ 343.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 March 2020   smart_toyLOW (76)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 308.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2020   smart_toyLOW (79)     Gap Down $ 356.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 August 2019   smart_toyLOW (70)     Gap Down $ 282.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2019   smart_toyLOW (59)     Gap Down $ 293.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2019   smart_toyLOW (71)     Gap Down $ 269.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 March 2019   smart_toyLOW (61)     Gap Down $ 257.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 December 2018   smart_toyHIGH (92)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 214.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 November 2018   smart_toyLOW (62)     sirenFIRE SALE Gap Down $ 228.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 October 2018   smart_toyLOW (46)     Gap Down $ 245.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
05 September 2018   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Down $ 260.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 July 2018   smart_toyLOW (45)     Gap Down $ 248.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
27 March 2018   smart_toyLOW (52)     Gap Down $ 221.85 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 November 2017   smart_toyLOW (51)     Gap Down $ 180.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2017   smart_toyLOW (66)     Gap Down $ 150.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2016   smart_toyLOW (76)     Gap Down $ 94.77 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 February 2016   smart_toyHIGH (91)     Gap Down $ 82.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Adobe Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ADBE) was last updated 30 Jul 2026 04:37. Data for this stock is available from 01 Feb 2016 - 29 Jul 2026.