Adobe Inc (ADBE) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Buy indicator:                
              [ What are these indicators? | Switch to ADBE's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  

Expectancy: 6.37%.   Win rate: 92.86%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.401.   Maximum drawdown: -55.62% on 30 September 2022.
Mean CAGR: 118.96%. Time in market: 3496 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $2359.49 on 15 December 2025.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Adobe

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 28 signal(s) occurring before 16 April 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (92.86% * 8.38%) + (3.57% * 0.74%) - (3.57% * 40.24%) = 6.37%.
Wins: 26 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 1

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Adobe Analysis

Market sector: Technology.

External links: Seeking Alpha Research, Zacks Research.

These links may show useful information about why a stock's price has fallen significantly.

 

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
23 April 2026   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 241.93 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 March 2026   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 249.16 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 February 2026   LOW   Gap Down $ 277.34 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 January 2026   LOW   Gap Down $ 341.99 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
29 October 2025   LOW   Gap Down $ 346.69 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
13 June 2025   LOW   Gap Down $ 392.09 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
15 November 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 511.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
13 September 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 534.72 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 May 2024   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 455.38 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
15 March 2024   LOW   Gap Down $ 496.05 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
14 December 2023   LOW   Gap Down $ 588.82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 September 2023   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 548.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 May 2023   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 354.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
02 November 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 310.03 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 September 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 375.47 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
10 June 2022   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 403.37 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
14 December 2021   LOW   Gap Down $ 625.11 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 November 2020   LOW   Gap Down $ 482.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
02 October 2020   LOW   Gap Down $ 483.49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
11 June 2020   LOW   Gap Down $ 393.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
28 April 2020   LOW   Gap Down $ 343.27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
27 March 2020   HIGH   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 308.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 February 2020   LOW   Gap Down $ 356.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 August 2019   LOW   Gap Down $ 282.70 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 June 2019   LOW   Gap Down $ 293.59 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
13 May 2019   LOW   Gap Down $ 269.13 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
15 March 2019   LOW   Gap Down $ 257.56 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 December 2018   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 214.18 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 November 2018   MEDIUM   FIRE SALE Gap Down $ 228.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 October 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 245.22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
05 September 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 260.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 July 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 248.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
27 March 2018   MEDIUM   Gap Down $ 221.85 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
29 November 2017   LOW   Gap Down $ 180.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 September 2017   LOW   Gap Down $ 150.98 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 June 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 94.77 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 February 2016   LOW   Gap Down $ 82.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt

 

The data for Adobe Inc (exchange: XNAS symbol: ADBE) was last updated 24 Apr 2026 07:46. Data for this stock is available from 01 Feb 2016 - 23 Apr 2026.