ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (NOBL) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to NOBL's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:           Threshold:         [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 6.49%.   Win rate: 75.00%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.156.   Maximum drawdown: -12.72% on 30 September 2022.
Mean CAGR: 43.9%. Time in market: 1268 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1373.00 on 27 March 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for US Dividend Aristocrats

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 8 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (75.00% * 8.15%) + (25.00% * 1.52%) - (0% * 0%) = 6.49%.
Wins: 6 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
19 March 2026   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.909  factory0.478   50 Day Low $ 105.56 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 November 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.852  factory0.63   50 Day Low $ 101.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
04 April 2025   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.931  factory0.774   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 96.61 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
17 December 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.838  factory0.567   50 Day Low $ 103.23 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 July 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.569  factory0.418   50 Day Low $ 95.34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
29 May 2024   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.568  factory0.31   50 Day Low $ 96.01 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
19 October 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.909  factory0.764   50 Day Low $ 86.64 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
13 September 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.804  factory0.453   50 Day Low $ 92.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 March 2023   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.631  factory0.733   50 Day Low $ 89.92 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
22 September 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.908  factory0.878   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 83.83 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
14 June 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.905  factory0.906   FIRE SALE 50 Day Low $ 84.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
11 May 2022   MEDIUM   smart_toy0.945  factory0.906   50 Day Low $ 89.65 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
14 February 2022   LOW   smart_toy0.916  factory0.606   50 Day Low $ 92.20 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
30 September 2021   LOW   smart_toy0.937  factory0.45   50 Day Low $ 89.50 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box

 

The data for ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (exchange: XCBO symbol: NOBL) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this ETF is available from 04 Jan 2021 - 29 May 2026.