Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to UMG's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 5.89%.   Win rate: 71.43%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.115.   Maximum drawdown: -26.54% on 11 October 2022.
Mean CAGR: 77.71%. Time in market: 1151 days.   Hypothetical return: €1000 would be worth €1373.94 on 08 December 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Universal Music Group

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 7 signal(s) occurring before 21 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (71.43% * 8.17%) + (28.57% * 0.20%) - (0% * 0%) = 5.89%.
Wins: 5 Breakevens: 2 Losses: 0

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Universal Music Group Analysis

Market sector: Consumer Discretionary.

Most Recent Buy Signals
Date Signal Type Score Performance
5% 6% 7.5%
14 July 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (20)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
19 June 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (29)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
04 June 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (32)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
18 May 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (32)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
05 May 2026 Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (71)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2026 Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (43)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule
14 April 2026 Mega Dump Lite   smart_toyLOW (34)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule
09 April 2026 Gap Down   smart_toyLOW (66)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
08 April 2026 Gap Up   smart_toyLOW (38)    shopping_cartLOW   select_check_box electric_bolt schedule schedule
07 April 2026 Collapsed Bubble   smart_toyLOW (58)    shopping_cartLOW   schedule schedule schedule

Large Gap Down Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each large gap down entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
14 July 2026   smart_toyLOW (20)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 18.53 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
04 June 2026   smart_toyLOW (32)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 18.12 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 April 2026   smart_toyLOW (66)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 19.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
16 February 2026   smart_toyLOW (29)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 19.66 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
03 November 2025   smart_toyLOW (31)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 22.76 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
19 September 2025   smart_toyLOW (31)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 23.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule schedule
01 August 2025   smart_toyLOW (27)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 23.62 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule schedule schedule
18 June 2025   smart_toyLOW (17)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 26.62 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 March 2025   smart_toyLOW (68)    shopping_cartLOW   Gap Down € 25.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt schedule
27 October 2023   smart_toyLOW (58)     Gap Down € 23.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 July 2023   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Down € 23.52 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
06 April 2023   smart_toyLOW (41)     Gap Down € 21.62 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
05 October 2022   smart_toyLOW (76)     Gap Down € 19.37 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
13 June 2022   smart_toyMEDIUM (80)     Gap Down € 19.92 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
06 April 2022   smart_toyLOW (23)     Gap Down € 23.66 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 January 2022   smart_toyLOW (30)     Gap Down € 23.54 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for Universal Music Group N.V. (exchange: XAMS symbol: UMG) was last updated 30 Jul 2026 02:22. Data for this stock is available from 03 Jan 2022 - 28 Jul 2026.