United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -5.60%.   Win rate: 63.51%.   Sharpe Ratio: -4.85.   Maximum drawdown: -78.00% on 28 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 120.93%. Time in market: 20951 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $622.68 on 21 December 2022.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 74 signal(s) occurring before 28 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (63.51% * 9.72%) + (9.46% * 0.88%) - (27.03% * 43.89%) = -5.60%.
Wins: 47 Breakevens: 7 Losses: 20

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Super Oversold Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Super Oversold entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 August 2026   smart_toyLOW (52%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 116.39 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
16 June 2026  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (55%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (GD) $ 115.90 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
09 December 2022  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (74%)   faceMEDIUM (55%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 62.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (CB) $ 24.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (SMR) $ 24.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 24.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
21 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (GD) $ 24.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (92%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 30.04 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
15 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (92%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (CB) $ 35.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
15 April 2020   smart_toyHIGH (92%)   faceLOW (5%)     Super Oversold (SMR) $ 35.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
27 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (98%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 35.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (98%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (SMRRoC) $ 38.60 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (99%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 48.56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
10 March 2020   smart_toyHIGH (99%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 57.28 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 March 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (86%)   faceLOW (5%)     Super Oversold (SMR) $ 53.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 March 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (86%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 53.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
09 March 2020   smart_toyMEDIUM (86%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 53.35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
27 February 2020   smart_toyLOW (36%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 78.00 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
20 December 2018   smart_toyMEDIUM (89%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 78.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 November 2018   smart_toyLOW (75%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 86.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 November 2018   smart_toyLOW (55%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 92.40 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
21 June 2017   smart_toyLOW (50%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 70.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 February 2016   smart_toyHIGH (99%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 63.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 February 2016   smart_toyHIGH (97%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 66.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 January 2016   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (SMR) $ 66.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 January 2016   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 74.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
07 January 2016   smart_toyMEDIUM (89%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 79.16 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 December 2015   smart_toyLOW (78%)   faceLOW (32%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 91.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
25 August 2015   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 103.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2015   smart_toyMEDIUM (88%)   faceHIGH (85%)     Super Oversold (SMR) $ 100.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2015   smart_toyMEDIUM (88%)   faceHIGH (85%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 100.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
20 August 2015   smart_toyLOW (74%)   faceLOW (0%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (52) $ 107.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
11 August 2015   smart_toyLOW (62%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 115.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt disabled_by_default
16 March 2015   smart_toyMEDIUM (82%)   faceLOW (2%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 131.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
28 January 2015   smart_toyLOW (77%)   faceLOW (20%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 134.08 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
12 January 2015   smart_toyLOW (77%)   faceLOW (20%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 140.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default
02 January 2015   smart_toyLOW (40%)   faceLOW (5%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 159.44 select_check_box disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 December 2014   smart_toyLOW (27%)   faceLOW (5%)     Super Oversold (SMRRoC) $ 161.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 December 2014   smart_toyLOW (22%)   faceLOW (10%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 182.60 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 December 2014   smart_toyLOW (23%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 187.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 December 2014   smart_toyLOW (23%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 187.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
01 December 2014   smart_toyLOW (17%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 206.50 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 November 2014   smart_toyLOW (22%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 223.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
13 November 2014   smart_toyLOW (28%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 228.88 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 October 2014   smart_toyLOW (35%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 251.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2014   smart_toyLOW (21%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 259.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
31 May 2012   smart_toyLOW (66%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 262.60 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
03 October 2011   smart_toyMEDIUM (89%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (RoC) $ 239.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 August 2011   smart_toyLOW (58%)   faceHIGH (100%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 254.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 August 2011   smart_toyLOW (63%)   faceLOW (12%)     sirenFIRE SALE Super Oversold (26) $ 256.24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 May 2010   smart_toyLOW (61%)   faceLOW (10%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 251.32 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 February 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 191.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
17 February 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (90%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 191.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
12 February 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 207.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 February 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (96%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (GD) $ 222.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
20 January 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (CB) $ 230.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 January 2009  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (95%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 264.72 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
24 December 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (95%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 232.02 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
05 December 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (94%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (SMRRoC) $ 276.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
05 December 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (95%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 276.00 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
04 December 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyHIGH (96%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 290.68 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (88%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 324.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
20 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (88%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (GD) $ 324.76 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (80%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (SMRRoC) $ 372.96 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
11 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (52) $ 392.40 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 402.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
07 November 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (85%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 402.32 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
24 October 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyMEDIUM (82%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 417.48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 October 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (69%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (GD) $ 492.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (71%)   faceHIGH (100%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 567.24 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (61%)   faceHIGH (90%)     Super Oversold (MD) $ 580.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
06 October 2008  bubble_chart   smart_toyLOW (61%)   faceHIGH (90%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 580.36 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
10 January 2007   smart_toyLOW (66%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 367.84 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
09 January 2007   smart_toyLOW (68%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 374.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 January 2007   smart_toyLOW (58%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (26) $ 383.56 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
03 October 2006   smart_toyLOW (64%)   faceLOW (0%)     Super Oversold (RoC) $ 431.44 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box

 

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 05 Aug 2026 03:23. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 04 Aug 2026.