United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                  [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 1.72%.   Win rate: 76.92%.   Sharpe Ratio: -0.546.   Maximum drawdown: -63.39% on 11 February 2016.
Mean CAGR: 175.87%. Time in market: 2166 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $593.20 on 05 June 2020.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 13 signal(s) occurring before 23 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (76.92% * 10.22%) + (7.69% * 1.66%) - (15.38% * 40.70%) = 1.72%.
Wins: 10 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 2

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

Mega Dump Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Mega Dump entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
29 June 2026       Mega Dump $ 106.86 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
01 June 2020       sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump $ 25.97 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
28 April 2020       Mega Dump $ 17.16 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
26 March 2020       Mega Dump $ 38.92 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
23 February 2016       Mega Dump $ 68.96 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
22 January 2016       sirenFIRE SALE Mega Dump $ 73.44 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 December 2014       Mega Dump $ 172.76 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
26 May 2010       Mega Dump $ 259.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 March 2009  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 227.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 February 2009  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 222.40 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
05 January 2009  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 292.24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
02 December 2008  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 316.00 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
29 October 2008  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 440.72 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
18 September 2008  bubble_chart       Mega Dump $ 635.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 01 Jul 2026 05:06. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 30 Jun 2026.