United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                
                   
              [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: 3.28%.   Win rate: 77.08%.   Sharpe Ratio: -2.171.   Maximum drawdown: -82.99% on 28 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 174.43%. Time in market: 7643 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $1244.04 on 27 September 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 48 signal(s) occurring before 05 August 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (77.08% * 9.72%) + (14.58% * 0.85%) - (8.33% * 51.98%) = 3.28%.
Wins: 37 Breakevens: 7 Losses: 4

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

Gap Up Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each Gap Up entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Date Buy Signal Price Scores Performance (mouseover for details)
Signal Sector WR Speed Risk Overall 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
30 July 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 127.30 45 15 89 95 59 39 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
24 July 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 137.20 45 38 89 94 59 52 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
02 June 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 136.17 42 16 89 93 61 38 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
30 April 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 146.70 38 27 89 90 61 42 schedule schedule schedule schedule schedule
14 April 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 125.48 54 27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 April 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 138.72 26 29 89 89 61 35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt schedule
25 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 111.34 35 22 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
13 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 117.48 29 34 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
10 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 106.50 27 36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
09 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 111.88 30 36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
04 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 90.89 22 24 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
03 March 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 92.15 22 21 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 January 2026  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 79.48 24 31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 June 2025  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 78.80 14 24 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
03 June 2025  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 69.76 23 21 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 January 2025  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 81.87 21 35 87 82 62 32 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 April 2023  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 70.70 33 41 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box
07 November 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 76.70 70 73 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
04 October 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 70.10 88 83 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box select_check_box
19 July 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 77.02 91 56 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
12 May 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 78.86 70 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
18 March 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 74.44 35 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 March 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 74.78 34 49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
25 February 2022  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 65.68 49 63 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 November 2021  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 48.26 55 31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
24 August 2021  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 47.02 52 27 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
10 November 2020 Gap Up $ 28.78 74 17 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
06 October 2020 Gap Up $ 28.52 52 27 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
22 May 2020 Gap Up $ 25.83 50 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
19 May 2020 Gap Up $ 24.46 68 64 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
08 May 2020 Gap Up $ 21.28 84 49 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 May 2020 Gap Up $ 21.07 84 65 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
01 May 2020 Gap Up $ 18.99 80 53 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 April 2020 Gap Up $ 18.94 64 54 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
24 April 2020 Gap Up $ 21.04 83 67 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 April 2020 Gap Up $ 44.40 95 88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 April 2020 Gap Up $ 46.40 96 88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
16 March 2020 Gap Up $ 48.56 94 89 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 March 2020 Gap Up $ 55.84 74 82 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
17 September 2019 Gap Up $ 100.88 10 15 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 June 2019 Gap Up $ 87.44 66 40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 December 2018 Gap Up $ 89.70 47 67 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
13 December 2016 Gap Up $ 94.08 39 35 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
01 December 2016 Gap Up $ 90.58 38 21 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
06 May 2016 Gap Up $ 87.08 74 31 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
11 April 2016 Gap Up $ 81.88 76 35 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 February 2016 Gap Up $ 68.96 97 71 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
29 January 2016 Gap Up $ 77.68 97 81 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
25 January 2016 Gap Up $ 69.92 98 77 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
26 August 2015 Gap Up $ 102.48 91 48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 July 2012 Gap Up $ 261.24 55 43 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
02 July 2012 Gap Up $ 251.44 62 48 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
23 February 2011 Gap Up $ 315.20 7 15 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box
13 April 2009  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 235.12 95 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 April 2009  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 246.60 95 82 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2009  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 215.44 92 79 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
20 February 2009  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 190.52 94 82 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
30 December 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 240.32 96 87 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
16 December 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 295.28 97 83 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 December 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 303.28 96 85 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
11 November 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 392.40 96 85 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 690.48 80 79 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
14 July 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 939.92 92 61 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 June 2008  bubble_chart Gap Up $ 876.36 94 70 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 13 Aug 2026 07:17. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 12 Aug 2026.