United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Simple Mean Reversion Simple Mean Reversion (RoC) Gap Up Rate of Change
Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB/OR
Collapsed Bubble Collapsed Bubble (RoC) Oversold Rebound Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: On Off Scores: All Low Medium High Very High Market sector score: All Low High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -7.32%. Win rate: 68.25%. Sharpe Ratio: -3.675. Maximum drawdown: -84.56% on 28 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 104.68%. Time in market: 16932 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $13.63 on 20 June 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 63 signal(s) occurring before 08 July 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (68.25% * 8.39%) + (4.76% * 0.27%) - (26.98% * 48.39%) = -7.32%.
Wins: 43 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 17

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date, Score and Sector Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
17 June 2026 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (40)	50 Day Low	$ 114.84	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule	schedule
16 December 2025 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (59)	50 Day Low	$ 66.46	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 October 2025 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (33)	50 Day Low	$ 71.91	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 April 2025 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (80)	50 Day Low	$ 65.81	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2025 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (29)	50 Day Low	$ 71.41	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
03 September 2024 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (51)	50 Day Low	$ 71.62	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
03 June 2024 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (39)	50 Day Low	$ 72.88	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
12 December 2023 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (66)	50 Day Low	$ 64.59	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2023 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (51)	50 Day Low	$ 72.40	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
14 March 2023 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (70)	50 Day Low	$ 63.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 December 2022 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (79)	50 Day Low	$ 63.66	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 September 2022 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (78)	50 Day Low	$ 68.40	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
06 July 2022 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (80)	50 Day Low	$ 73.58	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
30 November 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (68)	50 Day Low	$ 48.26	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (42)	50 Day Low	$ 46.06	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2021 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (42)	50 Day Low	$ 46.06	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 October 2020 smart_toyLOW (65)	50 Day Low	$ 25.26	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
08 September 2020 smart_toyLOW (33)	50 Day Low	$ 26.82	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 April 2020 smart_toyLOW (72)	50 Day Low	$ 33.42	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
26 February 2020 smart_toyLOW (68)	50 Day Low	$ 82.28	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
23 January 2020 smart_toyLOW (31)	50 Day Low	$ 93.04	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
29 May 2019 smart_toyMEDIUM (84)	50 Day Low	$ 97.08	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
17 December 2018 smart_toyMEDIUM (89) sirenFIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 85.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
31 October 2018 smart_toyLOW (44)	50 Day Low	$ 111.12	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
08 June 2017 smart_toyLOW (40)	50 Day Low	$ 75.32	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 May 2017 smart_toyLOW (32)	50 Day Low	$ 79.56	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 March 2017 smart_toyLOW (50)	50 Day Low	$ 87.12	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
11 November 2016 smart_toyLOW (70)	50 Day Low	$ 78.60	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
19 July 2016 smart_toyLOW (54)	50 Day Low	$ 85.96	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box
20 January 2016 smart_toyHIGH (91) sirenFIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 66.32	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 December 2015 smart_toyLOW (69)	50 Day Low	$ 86.76	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
12 November 2015 smart_toyLOW (60)	50 Day Low	$ 107.20	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
05 August 2015 smart_toyLOW (24)	50 Day Low	$ 121.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
01 July 2015 smart_toyLOW (12)	50 Day Low	$ 154.56	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 smart_toyLOW (61)	50 Day Low	$ 131.28	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 January 2015 smart_toyLOW (73)	50 Day Low	$ 136.72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 December 2014 smart_toyLOW (70)	50 Day Low	$ 167.80	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
12 November 2014 smart_toyLOW (33)	50 Day Low	$ 233.52	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
10 October 2014 smart_toyLOW (30)	50 Day Low	$ 257.24	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
08 September 2014 smart_toyLOW (11)	50 Day Low	$ 275.96	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
31 July 2014 smart_toyLOW (22)	50 Day Low	$ 292.82	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
09 January 2014 smart_toyLOW (52)	50 Day Low	$ 265.08	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default
01 November 2013 smart_toyLOW (34)	50 Day Low	$ 274.32	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	disabled_by_default
30 September 2013 smart_toyLOW (25)	50 Day Low	$ 293.32	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
15 April 2013 smart_toyLOW (41)	50 Day Low	$ 253.72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 October 2012 smart_toyLOW (58)	50 Day Low	$ 256.44	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 June 2012 smart_toyMEDIUM (82) sirenFIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 251.96	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
04 May 2012 smart_toyLOW (42)	50 Day Low	$ 300.52	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
22 September 2011 smart_toyMEDIUM (80)	50 Day Low	$ 250.12	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 August 2011 smart_toyLOW (20)	50 Day Low	$ 277.38	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
15 June 2011 smart_toyLOW (24)	50 Day Low	$ 306.16	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
06 May 2011 smart_toyLOW (21)	50 Day Low	$ 312.44	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
11 February 2011 smart_toyLOW (34)	50 Day Low	$ 289.32	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 August 2010 smart_toyMEDIUM (81)	50 Day Low	$ 261.40	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
06 May 2010 smart_toyLOW (72)	50 Day Low	$ 299.56	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
08 February 2010 smart_toyMEDIUM (82)	50 Day Low	$ 280.68	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
11 December 2009 smart_toyLOW (71)	50 Day Low	$ 284.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
02 February 2009 bubble_chart smart_toyHIGH (90)	50 Day Low	$ 227.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
18 December 2008 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (89)	50 Day Low	$ 267.00	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 November 2008 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (88)	50 Day Low	$ 402.32	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
06 October 2008 bubble_chart smart_toyMEDIUM (82)	50 Day Low	$ 580.36	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
02 September 2008 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (76)	50 Day Low	$ 703.88	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
29 July 2008 bubble_chart smart_toyLOW (78)	50 Day Low	$ 792.04	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
07 February 2008 smart_toyMEDIUM (87)	50 Day Low	$ 553.64	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 May 2007 smart_toyLOW (60)	50 Day Low	$ 383.64	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 January 2007 smart_toyMEDIUM (82)	50 Day Low	$ 403.28	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
17 November 2006 smart_toyMEDIUM (84)	50 Day Low	$ 405.60	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 October 2006 smart_toyMEDIUM (86)	50 Day Low	$ 431.44	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
28 August 2006 smart_toyMEDIUM (80)	50 Day Low	$ 521.68	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 16 Jul 2026 03:30. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 15 Jul 2026.