United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal: 52 Week Low 26 Week Low 50 day low Double Seven Rate of Change Super Oversold Mega Dump MegaDump Lite
Double Bottom Williams %R (Weekly) Large Gap Down Super Oversold from 52W/RoC/MD/DB Best Buy Signals [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target: 5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20% -or- Use trailing stop losses.
Show signal scores: Off Classic Original AI Model ML4 AI Model Threshold: All Low High Very High [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -7.58%. Win rate: 67.74%. Sharpe Ratio: -3.662. Maximum drawdown: -84.56% on 28 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 101.53%. Time in market: 16915 days. Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $12.52 on 19 March 2024.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)

*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 62 signal(s) occurring before 22 May 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (67.74% * 8.38%) + (4.84% * 0.27%) - (27.42% * 48.39%) = -7.58%.
Wins: 42 Breakevens: 3 Losses: 17

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

50 day low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 50 day low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key: disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score	Buy Signal	Price	Performance (mouseover for details)
			5%	6%	7.5%	10%	20%
16 December 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.362 factory0.279	50 Day Low	$ 66.46	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
02 October 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.182 factory0.229	50 Day Low	$ 71.91	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 April 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.903 factory0.75	50 Day Low	$ 65.81	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
05 March 2025 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.616 factory0.465	50 Day Low	$ 71.41	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
03 September 2024 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.315 factory0.198	50 Day Low	$ 71.62	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
03 June 2024 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.434 factory0.199	50 Day Low	$ 72.88	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
12 December 2023 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.293 factory0.295	50 Day Low	$ 64.59	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
07 November 2023 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.438 factory0.569	50 Day Low	$ 72.40	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
14 March 2023 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.188 factory0.443	50 Day Low	$ 63.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 December 2022 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.443 factory0.753	50 Day Low	$ 63.66	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 September 2022 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.313 factory0.8	50 Day Low	$ 68.40	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
06 July 2022 bubble_chart MEDIUM smart_toy0.979 factory0.888	50 Day Low	$ 73.58	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
30 November 2021 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.493 factory0.435	50 Day Low	$ 48.26	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2021 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.514 factory0.448	50 Day Low	$ 46.06	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
18 August 2021 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.514 factory0.448	50 Day Low	$ 46.06	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
29 October 2020 MEDIUM smart_toy0.805 factory0.571	50 Day Low	$ 25.26	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
08 September 2020 HIGH smart_toy0.801 factory0.501	50 Day Low	$ 26.82	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 April 2020 HIGH smart_toy0.676 factory0.698	50 Day Low	$ 33.42	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
26 February 2020 LOW smart_toy0.483 factory0.295	50 Day Low	$ 82.28	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
23 January 2020 LOW smart_toy0.536 factory0.203	50 Day Low	$ 93.04	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
29 May 2019 LOW smart_toy0.533 factory0.797	50 Day Low	$ 97.08	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
17 December 2018 MEDIUM smart_toy0.842 factory0.802 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 85.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
31 October 2018 LOW smart_toy0.452 factory0.748	50 Day Low	$ 111.12	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
08 June 2017 LOW smart_toy0.294 factory0.254	50 Day Low	$ 75.32	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 May 2017 LOW smart_toy0.428 factory0.179	50 Day Low	$ 79.56	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 March 2017 LOW smart_toy0.283 factory0.214	50 Day Low	$ 87.12	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
11 November 2016 LOW smart_toy0.23 factory0.201	50 Day Low	$ 78.60	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
19 July 2016 LOW smart_toy0.697 factory0.164	50 Day Low	$ 85.96	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box
20 January 2016 HIGH smart_toy0.894 factory0.474 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 66.32	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
17 December 2015 HIGH smart_toy0.134 factory0.35	50 Day Low	$ 86.76	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
12 November 2015 MEDIUM smart_toy0.695 factory0.222	50 Day Low	$ 107.20	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
05 August 2015 MEDIUM smart_toy0.531 factory0.323	50 Day Low	$ 121.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
01 July 2015 LOW smart_toy0.304 factory0.371	50 Day Low	$ 154.56	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
16 March 2015 MEDIUM smart_toy0.556 factory0.526	50 Day Low	$ 131.28	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 January 2015 HIGH smart_toy0.895 factory0.417	50 Day Low	$ 136.72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 December 2014 HIGH smart_toy0.651 factory0.326	50 Day Low	$ 167.80	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
12 November 2014 LOW smart_toy0.134 factory0.214	50 Day Low	$ 233.52	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
10 October 2014 LOW smart_toy0.538 factory0.348	50 Day Low	$ 257.24	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
08 September 2014 LOW smart_toy0.194 factory0.144	50 Day Low	$ 275.96	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
31 July 2014 LOW smart_toy0.542 factory0.187	50 Day Low	$ 292.82	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
09 January 2014 LOW smart_toy0.497 factory0.299	50 Day Low	$ 265.08	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	disabled_by_default
01 November 2013 LOW smart_toy0.116 factory0.262	50 Day Low	$ 274.32	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	disabled_by_default
30 September 2013 LOW smart_toy0.396 factory0.31	50 Day Low	$ 293.32	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
15 April 2013 LOW smart_toy0.288 factory0.218	50 Day Low	$ 253.72	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 October 2012 LOW smart_toy0.224 factory0.287	50 Day Low	$ 256.44	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
08 June 2012 LOW smart_toy0.931 factory0.768 FIRE SALE	50 Day Low	$ 251.96	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box
04 May 2012 LOW smart_toy0.54 factory0.219	50 Day Low	$ 300.52	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
22 September 2011 MEDIUM smart_toy0.789 factory0.801	50 Day Low	$ 250.12	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
04 August 2011 LOW smart_toy0.57 factory0.363	50 Day Low	$ 277.38	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
15 June 2011 LOW smart_toy0.484 factory0.259	50 Day Low	$ 306.16	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
06 May 2011 LOW smart_toy0.596 factory0.182	50 Day Low	$ 312.44	select_check_box	select_check_box	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
11 February 2011 LOW smart_toy0.66 factory0.164	50 Day Low	$ 289.32	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
23 August 2010 LOW smart_toy0.339 factory0.7	50 Day Low	$ 261.40	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
06 May 2010 LOW smart_toy0.478 factory0.791	50 Day Low	$ 299.56	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
08 February 2010 LOW smart_toy0.817 factory0.79	50 Day Low	$ 280.68	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
11 December 2009 LOW smart_toy0.45 factory0.716	50 Day Low	$ 284.48	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box
02 February 2009 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.919 factory0.763	50 Day Low	$ 227.36	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
18 December 2008 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.912 factory0.76	50 Day Low	$ 267.00	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt
07 November 2008 bubble_chart HIGH smart_toy0.85 factory0.874	50 Day Low	$ 402.32	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
06 October 2008 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.363 factory0.81	50 Day Low	$ 580.36	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
02 September 2008 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.538 factory0.905	50 Day Low	$ 703.88	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
29 July 2008 bubble_chart LOW smart_toy0.629 factory0.921	50 Day Low	$ 792.04	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default	disabled_by_default
07 February 2008 LOW smart_toy0.598 factory0.853	50 Day Low	$ 553.64	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
07 May 2007 LOW smart_toy0.34 factory0.61	50 Day Low	$ 383.64	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
03 January 2007 LOW smart_toy0.954 factory0.758	50 Day Low	$ 403.28	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
17 November 2006 LOW smart_toy0.855 factory0.796	50 Day Low	$ 405.60	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt	select_check_box	select_check_box electric_bolt
03 October 2006 LOW smart_toy0.77 factory0.774	50 Day Low	$ 431.44	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box
28 August 2006 LOW smart_toy0.752 factory0.807	50 Day Low	$ 521.68	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box	select_check_box

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 30 May 2026 15:00. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 29 May 2026.