United States Oil Fund (USO) Daily/Weekly Backtest Results

Signal:                  
                [ What are these? | Switch to USO's monthly backtests ]
Fixed profit target:               -or-  
Show signal scores:       Scores:           Market sector score:       [ What are these scores? ]
Expectancy: -8.98%.   Win rate: 59.09%.   Sharpe Ratio: -1.934.   Maximum drawdown: -79.80% on 28 April 2020.
Mean CAGR: 109.39%. Time in market: 7250 days.   Hypothetical return: $1000 would be worth $184.94 on 30 March 2023.
Key: change_history : profitable trade change_history : breakeven trade (minimal loss after 2 years) change_history : losing trade (not profitable in a 2 year timeframe)


*Transaction costs, taxes and dividends are excluded from these calculations. Past performance may not necessarily be a reliable guide to future performance.

Calculations for Oil

Expectancy is the percentage profit or loss you would expect to make on the next purchase of this stock with an entry point at the specified signal and profit target as set above. Given a large enough sample size, a positive expectancy indicates the trading strategy is likely to be profitable.

Expectancy calculation for 22 signal(s) occurring before 16 June 2024 for a 7.5% profit target: (59.09% * 8.25%) + (4.55% * 4.04%) - (36.36% * 38.61%) = -8.98%.
Wins: 13 Breakevens: 1 Losses: 8

To even out CAGR calculations, large individual returns from particularly quick trades have been capped at 300%.

The Sharpe Ratio calculation assumes a risk free return rate of 2% per calendar year. Ideally the ratio should be a positive number. A higher positive number indicates the strategy has a more attractive risk adjusted rate of return for this particular buy signal and stock over the chart's timeframe.

 

52 Week Low Backtest Summary (Fixed Profits System)

This table summarises how profitable it would have been to have bought this stock at each 52 week low entry signal. Hover over the icons to see more details of the particular trade, including the maximum percentage drawdown and how long it took to reach the desired percentage profit.

Key:   disabled_by_default = profit point not achieved. select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR above 15%.
select_check_box = profit point achieved with CAGR of between 5% and 15%. select_check_box = profit point achieved but CAGR was less than 5%.

Signal Date and Score Buy Signal Price Performance (mouseover for details)
5% 6% 7.5% 10% 20%
04 April 2025  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 67.41 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
15 March 2023  bubble_chart   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 60.14 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
17 April 2020   cards_starHIGH     sirenFIRE SALE 52 Week Low $ 33.42 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt
06 March 2020   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 71.88 select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box select_check_box
03 February 2020   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 84.94 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
23 November 2018   cards_starHIGH     52 Week Low $ 86.84 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
08 June 2017   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 75.32 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
10 February 2016   cards_starHIGH     52 Week Low $ 63.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
06 January 2016   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 81.64 select_check_box select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
04 December 2015   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 99.64 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
27 July 2015   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 125.84 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
16 March 2015   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 131.28 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt
23 January 2015   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 136.72 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
16 December 2014   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 167.80 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
12 November 2014   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 233.52 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
09 October 2014   cards_starVERY LOW     52 Week Low $ 259.04 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
22 September 2011   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 250.12 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt
09 August 2011   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 254.36 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
21 May 2010   cards_starLOW     52 Week Low $ 256.40 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
02 February 2009  bubble_chart   cards_starHIGH     52 Week Low $ 227.36 select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
22 December 2008  bubble_chart   cards_starHIGH     52 Week Low $ 253.88 select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_boltelectric_boltelectric_bolt select_check_box electric_bolt
18 November 2008  bubble_chart   cards_starHIGH     52 Week Low $ 359.44 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default
15 October 2008  bubble_chart   cards_starMEDIUM     52 Week Low $ 492.48 disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default disabled_by_default

 

The data for United States Oil Fund (exchange: ARCX symbol: USO) was last updated 24 Jun 2026 06:55. Data for this ETF is available from 10 Apr 2006 - 23 Jun 2026.